China's incursions into Indonesia's Exclusive Economic Zone have underscored the threat to the country's interests. While a quiet military modernisation has been ongoing, Indonesia would be served by joining India and Australia in a trilateral defence agreement.
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In an attempt to secure the region in the interests of peace and stability, states are increasingly militarizing their activities and foreign policies. The implications of these actions are likely to fall hardest on the small regional states, looking to stay out of the way of great power rivalry.
A sea change in the foreign policy of Türkiye looks poised to occur, with a chance for rapprochement between Ankara and Western capitals. This is likely to spell trouble for Russia and China, particularly as competition for influence in Central Asia looms large on the agenda of the government.
The 14 May election in Türkiye shocked many analysts who believed the opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, would defeat the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For the first time, Türkiye will conduct a run-off for a presidential election because no candidate was able to achieve 50 per cent of the vote.