As maritime chokepoints grow more volatile, states are racing to redraw the global map of trade. Geopolitical competition is enhancing the role of Eurasia’s overland corridors, reviving ancient Silk Road routes and elevating the role of transit states.
One of the most significant consequences of the 2026 conflict in Iran has been the disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Its closure in March 2026 triggered global supply disruptions. As one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, the Strait normally carries roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, alongside substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilisers.
While the current conflict highlights the importance of maritime routes, it more directly underscores how a single conflict can fundamentally destabilise global trade flows. In response to the persistent exposure of global trade to geopolitical risks, states are accelerating efforts to diversify or secure trade routes. The same logic is visible beyond the Middle East. In the Western Hemisphere, for example, the United States has expressed renewed interest in the Panama Canal in the context of strategic competition with China.
Within this context, Central Asia and the South Caucasus, territories that historically constituted the core of the ancient Silk Road, have regained significance in the twenty-first century. As was the case during antiquity and the medieval period, when the Silk Road served as a vital bridge between East and West, the region today is increasingly occupying a central position in global trade.
The Return of Eurasian Overland Routes
This renewed strategic relevance is most clearly reflected in the rise of Eurasian overland routes. Initiatives such as the Middle Corridor (also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route), a 4,000-kilometre multimodal transport network linking China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkey, have gained prominence. The route has seen its freight volumes dramatically increase, reaching around 4.5 million tons in 2024, a more than fivefold rise over seven years. While still facing challenges, the corridor has seen substantial coordination frameworks and significant funding commitments from actors such as the European Union and China.
The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) running along the eastern Caspian reflects the same search for route diversification from a different geographic direction. The multimodal route linking India, Iran, Russia, and Central Asian states enhances north–south and east–west connectivity and improves market access for landlocked states by integrating rail, road, and maritime systems. In theory, the corridor cuts transit time significantly compared to the Suez Canal route. Beyond its economic function, INSTC shows how states increasingly seek to diversify trade routes, adjusting to the geopolitical climate and recognising that no single corridor is fully viable in an environment of persistent geopolitical disruptions.
Taken together, these developments show how logistics is evolving into an instrument for limiting dependencies and adapting to geopolitical changes. As a result, states traditionally positioned at the periphery of global trade networks are gaining increasing strategic importance. This is especially true for transit states such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, whose geographic positions are becoming increasingly valuable.
From Periphery to Transit: New Actors in Global Logistics
Both countries benefit from the Middle Corridor, and as the largest Landlocked Developing Country (LLDC) by land area, Kazakhstan occupies a particularly strategic position owing to its vast territory and central location across Central Asia. The country hosts multiple international rail corridors linking major economic centres, with transit volumes increasing steadily since 2020, showing its growing role as a logistics hub. In fact, empirical data show that the route from China to Europe through Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea saw a 125 percent increase in transport volumes, from under 1.5 to over 3.3 million tons of cargo between 2022 and 2024. The country’s geographic position gives it strategic relevance in multiple directions at once and this integration suggests Kazakhstan’s growing repositioning from a periphery into a multidirectional logistics hub, contributing to both east–west and north–south connectivity across the wider region. The country’s increased logistical role is also reinforced externally by major multilateral corridor financing.
Regarding Azerbaijan, the elevation of ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China in April 2025, with the goal of enhancing the alignment of the Belt and Road Initiative with Azerbaijan’s development strategy and improving logistics efficiency, aligns with the country’s aspiration to be a key transit hub linking China, Central Asia, and Europe. Azerbaijan’s transit cargo volumes reached 9.1 million tons in the first seven months of 2026, the highest level in five years and an 11.6% increase year on year. This growth reinforces the country’s emerging role within regional transport corridors and much like Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan’s active participation in different trade routes shows its aspiration to become a critical bridge between Asia and Europe, deepening its economic integration with both power centres.
The Zangezur Corridor, following the U.S.-brokered accord in August 2025, may further reinforce this logic. The agreement provides for the opening of a transit corridor across southern Armenia, reconnecting Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, after three decades of isolation. Although not yet operational, the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor reflects Azerbaijan’s goal to be a key regional transit hub. At the same time, it illustrates the growing involvement of major powers in logistical infrastructure as a domain of geopolitical competition. The Zangezur Corridor, reconceptualised under the 2025 Washington accord as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), can be viewed as a development in regional connectivity with potential geopolitical implications, since the agreement establishes a U.S.-managed link between Turkey and Azerbaijan that bypasses Iranian territory, thereby reducing Iran’s role as a transit route within this corridor. In conclusion, while the success of new corridors is not guaranteed, their emergence signals a shift in how states perceive connectivity. Trade routes are becoming geopolitical tools, and their diversification is becoming a strategic priority for many countries. Whether these corridors ultimately operate as complementary alternatives or evolve into arenas of competition will depend on policy coordination and on the ability of transit states to balance great‑power interests. These developments underscore the growing prominence of trade connectivity in geopolitical strategy.
Moncef Fellah holds a Master of Science in International Studies from the University of Montreal. His research interests focus on the geopolitical dynamics in Eurasia and the Middle East.
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