With the recent downfall of the longest-serving prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, following domestic political unrest, Bangladesh is anticipated to reassert its role as a small state leader in Indo-Pacific security. For Indo-Pacific partners, aligning with the security interests of Bangladesh will help promote the overall security of the country, and this can best be met by observing domestic circumstances.

Bangladesh has been an integral part of the Indian Ocean string of small states, apart from Maldives and Sri Lanka, driving small-state identity and leadership in shaping the Indo-Pacific strategy. However, in its regional efforts, Bangladesh will require navigating its domestic issues and political interests, which are strongly impacted by the country’s domestic vulnerabilities, many of which are associated with climate change and how this interacts with concerns about socio-economic performance and security.

Domestic concerns were highlighted when Hasina’s government job quota policy—privileging family members of 1971 Bangladesh freedom fighters—led to protests by concerned university students, which escalated into violent clashes between government authorities and protesters resulting in number of deaths and the eventual downfall of her government. Perhaps the worst offence, however, was that the government portrayed a lack of readiness to address public concerns.

Hasina’s refusal to meet with protesting students’ demand for dialogue on a merit-based job system enraged them, and quickly eroded public trust in her government. As a result, clashes between protesters and proponents of Hasina’s government increased, leading to the death of over 300 during the civil unrest.

The heavily biased employment quota policy did not help address the ongoing socio-economic hardship. Certainly, this did not help the growing national youth unemployment problem—in 2022 28 percent of graduates were unemployed. As of February 2024, over 25 percent of the 1.9 million positions in the civil administration remain vacant because the authorities have been reluctant to initiate the recruitment procedure.

With the country in turmoil, one could speculate on the possible weakening of small states’ narratives in advancing an agenda for broader meanings of security that account for climate and human security components of regionalism. After Hasina’s downfall, the military, in consultation with Bangladeshi President Mohammed Shahabuddin, was quick to instate an interim government led by the Nobel peace laureate Muhammad Yunus. An interim government is just a means to an end—many things could go wrong between now and forming a new government through the democratic process.

The approach Bangladeshi authorities could take to position the country in the regional security domain, including the interim government’s policies,  will be significantly impacted by the underlying factors of the recent domestic crisis. This means that the domestic situation must be considered when dealing with the country’s regional security responsibilities.

Bangladesh has illustrated how development challenges associated with socio-economic hardship and climate-induced conditions can lead to social violence and political conflict when the government fails to address them. A series of domestic conditions has imposed threatening political conditions on the country—the recent political crisis was part of the many ripples created by the state’s incapacity to address community challenges.

For example, erratic rainfall, drought, floods, river erosion, and tropical storms have affected crop production over the years and the government’s efforts to address their impacts on employment have not sufficed to meet community demands. Agriculture contributes about 12 percent to the GDP and employs 44 percent of the workforce of the country, and the disruptions to the industry has affected community income and wellbeing.

With certain development milestones being achieved, including a record decline in the poverty rate, reduction in infant mortality and stunting, and increased literacy rates, Bangladesh has remained increasingly vulnerable to climate-induced flooding and extreme weather events that have continuously eclipsed the country’s capacity to step up and fully address the challenges— lack of good governance in Hasina’s term exacerbates this.

For the interim government, with the commitment “to bringing freedom to every home,” the main challenge is to maintain law and order and provide justice—the country’s society demands justice after the recent events. In ensuring a smooth transition to a new government, the interim government has aimed to address immediate economic issues, and refocus on development and security priorities.

For example, climate change has multiplied the threats to various sectors, including agriculture and employment industry, hitting the poorest and most vulnerable people the hardest. Between 2000-2019, over US$5 billion in economic losses was caused through 185 extreme weather events, underscoring the need to address climate-induced challenges in development and security plans.

For small states, socio-economic status depends on the environment and physical infrastructure supporting community activity. Climate change continues to disrupt socio-economic progress and poses long-term security concerns.

For Bangladesh, the lack of state capacity to fully protect the socio-economic infrastructure against disaster-induced internal migration, resources distribution, and unemployment can weaken the country’s potential for sustainability, leading to potential national security issues. In this context, Bangladesh’s security narratives will be shaped by these domestic circumstances, and how the new government aims to address them will help its Indo-Pacific partners to gauge areas of cooperation to promote mutual security interests.

In 2023, Bangladesh endorsed a free, open, peaceful, secure, and inclusive Indo-Pacific, and advocated for incorporating more immediate and pressing non-traditional security issues, such as climate change and natural disasters, with the Indo-Pacific security partners.

Inherent vulnerabilities combined with political instability will make the state weak. However, it also creates opportunities to make improvements. At the same time, the demand for improvements can also attract new partners and competing donors, such as China, leading to their investment footprint in this Indo-Pacific small state. In recent years, Bangladesh has sought financial support from China to address the country’s ongoing economic crisis—with Hasina’s strong political connections with India, her downfall could speculate China’s interests expanding.

However, Indo-Pacific partners have already identified the implications of non-traditional threats as a line of engagement with regional small states. This can help Dhaka navigate the country’s key development and security priorities with its Indo-Pacific aid partners.

Overall, aligning with the security interests of Bangladesh will help promote the overall security of the country in line with the regional strategies, and this can best be met by observing domestic circumstances.

Dr Athaulla (“Atho”) Rasheed is a former foreign service officer and diplomat at the Maldives Ministry of Foreign Affairs and holds a PhD in political science from the University of Queensland in Australia and is a former senior lecturer in political science and international relations at the Maldives National University.

Subrata Banarjee is a PhD scholar at the Department of Pacific Affairs, Australian National University, studying the role of service providers in helping women access justice for domestic violence cases in Bangladesh and PNG.

This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.