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The Persistence of Populism: Why American Protectionism toward China is Here to Stay

19 Nov 2024
By Professor Amy Skonieczny
President Joe Biden walks to the Oval Office with President-elect Donald Trump, Source: Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz / https://t.ly/G5s5E

With populist fervor now embedded in US-China relations, economic tensions have become a bipartisan fixture in Washington. As both parties double down on Trump’s legacy of tough talk, the US-China trade war is set to be a defining—and enduring—feature of American foreign policy.

President-elect Donald Trump’s recent victory in the US presidential election is unlikely to change much in US policy towards China. Even with a notably different president in office over the past four years, the US trade war with China remained the same as President Trump’s first term, and with his second term looming, we can expect more of the same. While this may signal the policy is working, we argue that the perpetuation of protectionism towards China results not from a successful economic policy but from a successful populist policy narrative that pits China (and corrupt elites) against the working-class American people, and promotes protectionism as the only solution to restoring the American dream.

During his first term, President Trump framed China as a threat to American workers and a violator of fair trade practices, positioning himself as the defender of the American middle class. This narrative resonated deeply with voters, cementing China as a key villain in the story of America’s economic struggles. President Joe Biden, who many expected to recalibrate trade relations, has found it politically and strategically advantageous to carry on Trump’s hard-line as the American public has come to expect economic protectionism towards China. Rather than removing tariffs or easing tensions, his administration has doubled down, emphasising economic “independence” from China and the need to protect American supply chains from foreign influence. During the 2024 presidential election, both Kamala Harris and former Trump promoted protectionist policies toward China to protect the American working class. They chose populist candidates for their running mates, guaranteeing that the current US-China economic policies would continue no matter who won the election. With Trump’s victory, of course, we can now expect even more robust protectionism and an extended trade war with China.

From populism to policy: how China became America’s economic “Other”

The trade war rhetoric championed by President Trump during his first term capitalised on long-simmering anxieties about globalisation and its impact on American industries. Framing China as an economic predator, he tapped into an “us vs. them” populist narrative that blamed global elites and foreign competitors for the hardships faced by American workers. The language was stark, with China portrayed not as a trade partner but as a threat to American sovereignty. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, which escalated throughout his presidency, symbolised this approach, aiming to “level the playing field” by penalising Beijing for what his administration called its unfair practices.

Under President Biden, the trade war with China not only persisted but intensified. Key figures within his administration, such as US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, framed US-China relations in terms of protecting American industries and workers from China’s expansionist ambitions. Biden’s policies exceeded Trump’s tariffs, imposing restrictions on technology exports, especially in critical areas like semiconductors, to prevent the exposure of US strategic technologies from China’s technological predation made possible by a subsidised economy. This tech-centric angle adds a new layer to the trade war, signaling that the US seeks to prevent China from dominating strategic industries that are central to national security and global influence.This bipartisan embrace of the China trade war reflects a broader shift in Washington. Gone are the days of diplomatic engagement and integration into the global economy; both parties now view economic decoupling as a necessary measure to protect American interests. The framing is clear: trade with China is no longer seen as mutually beneficial but as a high-stakes competition where American prosperity is at risk.

The emotional power of populist narratives

One of the most striking insights from our research is the emotional power of populist narratives, which give policies like those that led to the China trade war enduring appeal. By casting China as a menacing antagonist, populist leaders have invoked not only economic concerns but also emotional rhetoric that projects a sense of betrayal, injustice, and fear—emotions that resonate deeply with voters. Trump’s populist messaging was designed to create a moral storyline in which American workers were the “good guys,” besieged by both the “cheating” foreign powers and complicit domestic elites. This emotional narrative taps into fears of a diminishing American middle class, painting China not just as a trade competitor but as a threat to the American way of life.

Surprisingly, the Biden administration has continued this narrative, using emotionally charged language to convey urgency and moral conviction. Ambassador Katherine Tai, for example, often speaks of China’s practices in terms of “unfairness” and “threat,” reinforcing a sense of righteous struggle. This appeal to emotion makes the China trade war feel not just like a policy choice but like a necessary crusade. It turns economic rivalry into a story of national resilience, one in which American prosperity must be defended against a hostile “other.” Such emotional framing not only rallies voter support but also makes it difficult for any administration—Republican or Democrat—to ease tensions without appearing to abandon American workers.

The unyielding stance toward China suggests a return to pre-2017 trade dynamics is unlikely. Instead, the US is moving towards a long-term strategy of economic containment, aiming to limit China’s influence on global markets and protect key American industries. This shift may encourage other countries to follow suit, potentially leading to a more fragmented global economy as nations prioritise domestic interests over international cooperation.

While some Democrats remain wary of Biden’s aggressive approach, noting its departure from the party’s historical support for trade liberalisation, the administration’s policy reflects the growing importance of economic nationalism in US politics. With both parties vying for the working-class vote, the China trade war has become a powerful symbol of commitment to American workers, making it politically risky for any candidate to advocate a softer stance.

The China trade war is here to stay

Our research demonstrates the resilience of Trump’s populist framing, which has made China a lasting focal point in US economic policy. By positioning China as the antagonist in a populist “us vs. them” narrative, Trump set the stage for a confrontation that Biden has only deepened. The 2024 election, with Harris and Trump both committed to maintaining a hard line, made it clear that the China trade war would persist no matter the outcome. Now with Trump’s victory, protectionist economic policies will not only continue to impact US-China trade relations, but will likely impact other trading relationships as well.

This bipartisan alignment on China trade policy reflects a fundamental shift in US priorities, one that marks the end of an era of liberal trade and signals a return to economic nationalism. America’s trade policy with China has become a powerful reflection of this new reality, one in which both political parties, despite their differences, now share a commitment to protecting American jobs and asserting US economic independence. The emotional resonance of this populist narrative means that the China trade war is likely to remain central to US policy—and to the American political imagination—for years to come.

This analysis is based on the findings of a recent journal article.

Dr Amy Skonieczny is a Professor in the San Francisco State University International Relations Department. She published her recent academic article with her graduate student Ancita Sherel, “The Trump effect: the perpetuation of populism in US-China Trade” in International Affairs, as part of a special issue titled The Effects of Global Populism in September 2024.

This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.