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The Humanitarian Crisis and Conflict in Sudan Continues to Deteriorate

03 Oct 2024
By Will Devine
Aftermath of Attack on Abyei Town, Sudan, 2011. Source:  UN Photo / https://t.ly/IBsno

Sudan’s escalating civil war has led to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, with millions facing severe food insecurity and displacement. The conflict has resulted in widespread violence, including attacks on civilians and humanitarian workers, and has exacerbated regional instability.

In little over a year of civil war Sudan has become the site of one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. The legacy of the Sudanese civil war from the early 2000’s remains, and civilians who survived genocide in Darfur are seeing history repeat itself. Peace talks in Geneva, convened by the United States and Switzerland, made some progress in increasing humanitarian assistance, however efforts at a sustainable peace are further away.

Now, the fighting is intensifying, and the humanitarian crisis continues to deteriorate. Sudan is now at risk of one of the worst famines on record. Additionally, the risk of wider regional instability in neighbouring countries such as Chad and Ethiopia remains.

Sudan’s civil war is also now the world’s worst displacement crisis, with at least 10 million displaced according to UN agencies. Countries throughout the region are also grappling with their own food security crises. There is nowhere safe to go.

In June this year, the United Nations Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) published its assessment of food insecurity. It concluded that Sudan is facing its worst levels of food insecurity ever recorded by the IPC in the country.

From June to September 2024, over half of the population (25.6m people) faced “Crisis” level or worse conditions (IPC Phase 3 or above). 8.5m people, or 18 percent of the population, currently face “Emergency” level conditions (IPC Phase 4).

755,000 people face “Catastrophe” level conditions (IPC Phase 5) in 10 states, including the five states of Greater Darfur as well as South and North Kordofan, Blue Nile, Al Jazirah, and Khartoum states. A Famine classification (IPC Phase 5) is the highest phase of the IPC Acute Food Insecurity scale, and is declared when an area has at least 20 percent of households facing an extreme lack of food, and with at least 30 percent of children suffering from acute malnutrition,

The situation is so dire that in the small town of Tawila, located within Sudan’s North Darfur state, at least 10 children are dying of hunger every day. A July 2024 assessment from humanitarian agency Mercy Corps found that across Central Darfur, nearly a quarter of all children screened were suffering from severe acute malnutrition.

The conflict in Sudan has involved intense clashes in densely populated urban areas. Homes, public buildings, shops, hospitals, and schools have been attacked. Humanitarians have been killed, their offices looted, and aid convoys have been stolen. At least 22,000 people have been killed according to the United Nation’s own estimates. However, the United States Special Envoy for Sudan Tom Perriello has remarked at a Congressional Inquiry that the true death toll could be as high as 150,000.

The Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab said in a report that its analysis concluded “unprecedented large-scale combat operations” across the city of El-Fasher, which is home to a large displacement camp. Humanitarian agencies operating on the ground, such as Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), have reported that both sides are engaged in siege tactics, a likely war crime. Additionally, MSF have been forced to close operations, resulting in only one operating hospital remaining in Darfur. The Humanitarian Research Lab has also identified that arson attacks are widespread.

The worst outbreak of violence took place in the city of Al Geneina in 2023, where between 10,000 and 15,000 were killed in a campaign motivated by executions and ethnic hatred, according to a United Nations report from early 2024. This toll would exceed the Srebrenica massacre of 1995, which is acknowledged as the worst mass murder in Europe since the Second World War. A United Nations Panel of Experts concluded that “The attacks were planned, coordinated, and executed by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and their allied militias.”

In September, the United Nations Independent Fact Finding Mission for Sudan published its first report. It has identified numerous shocking findings. It accuses both sides, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), of the mutilation, murder, and torture of civilians. The report also accused the RSF of ethnically motivated violence against non-Arab communities, which includes arbitrary killings, torture, rape, and the destruction of property.

Most notably, the report recommends the adoption of an “independent and impartial” peacekeeping force to protect civilians, and for an international arms embargo on all of Sudan. Currently, an arms embargo is in place for only Darfur, which has been in place since 2005 as part of a suite of sanctions measures. On 12 September 2024, the United Nations Security Council voted to extend this until September 2025, however failed to expand these sanctions regimes across Sudan, something Human Rights Watch has described as a “missed opportunity.”

Some international efforts at coordinating peace and an expanded humanitarian response are occurring. In April 2024, Paris convened the International Humanitarian Conference for Sudan and its neighbours. Donor states pledged a meagre US$2 billion, less than half of the $4.1 billion required according to the UN in humanitarian assistance. This assistance is needed to help half of Sudan’s population as well as the millions in host countries. Additionally, what has been pledged is being disbursed far too late. The Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) is only 41 percent funded, which is an unacceptable gap as starvation worsens.

As the humanitarian crisis continues to deteriorate, pledges made at Paris continue to miscomprehend the true needs of the people. Australia’s humanitarian assistance to Sudan since the war began in 2023, for instance, is a meagre AU$33 million. This is far below like-minded counterparts such as Canada, who has contributed at least CA$170 million, and has pledged $132 million in further assistance at Paris this year.

To achieve peace in Sudan and to address the widespread atrocity crimes and the risk of famine, the international community must ensure that it is not complicit in crimes against humanity. Currently, the crisis is emboldening a plethora of actors who are seeking financial gain, as well as geopolitical or strategic advantage.

Recently, Australia signed a new trade agreement with the United Arab Emirates, who are credibly accused by UN experts of smuggling weapons via Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Uganda, therefore financially emboldening the RSF and enabling their heinous acts of brutality. Sometimes, they even utilise Russian Wagner Group mercenaries to carry this out.

Ex-Russian and Ukrainian Servicemen, who previously were killing each other in the fields of Donetsk, are (separately) training the Sudanese Armed Forces, who deny humanitarian assistance to those in greatest need (in RSF-held Darfur). The Emirates have also been credibly accused of smuggling in weapons while using the emblems of the Red Cross and Red Crescent movements. This constitutes perfidy, a breach of international humanitarian law, and possibly a war crime. What’s needed is financial pressure against the warring parties from actors with influence such as the United States.

Recently, the Biden administration designated the UAE as a “major defence partner” while hosting President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Washington. Yet in the official read-out of these meetings, statements on the issue of Sudan only include messages of “concern.” This is a glaring inconsistency in US foreign policy. This also comes as UAE troops have been caught smuggling weapons into Sudan and have been killed in Sudanese airports.

The United States needs to sanction the outside actors who enable the RSF to remain a financially viable fighting force. Furthermore, greater leverage must be placed upon the Sudanese Armed Forces, who continue to hold onto power and ignore the calls of civil society for elections and democracy.

On 24 September, right after Biden’s meeting with bin-Zayed, the president told the United Nations that “The United States has led the world in providing humanitarian aid to Sudan. And with our partners, we have led diplomatic talks to try to silence the guns and avert a wider famine. The world needs to stop arming the generals, to speak with one voice and tell them: Stop tearing your country apart. Stop blocking aid to the Sudanese people. End this war now.” Let’s hope he delivered these messages to the UAE and the numerous other financial backers of this brutal conflict and humanitarian crisis. However, I remain sceptical.

Will Devine is a Policy & Advocacy Officer at the Australian Council for International Development, a World Economic Forum Global Shaper, and an Advisory Council Member at the Australian Institute of International Affairs ACT Branch. The views expressed in the articles are his own and not necessarily representative of the views of any organisation he is affiliated with.

This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.