On 7 August 2024, Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolved the highly popular Move Forward Party and banned its 11 party executives from politics for ten years. While this represents yet another blow to the country’s progressive political forces, they remain defiant and continue to push for more democracy.

Move Forward was the largest party in the parliament and the rightful winner of the 2023 election. Its dissolution disenfranchised more than 14 million voters. Its “crime” was an electoral campaign promise to reform the country’s draconian lese majesté law, which the conservative royalist-military establishment have been using for decades to stymie popular demands for democracy. So, what does the Move Forward dissolution mean?

Power continues to reside in the hands of unelected elites

Parties associated with the conservative royalist-military establishment have not been able to win elections for more than twenty years. Since Thaksin Shinawatra and his Thai Rak Thai party won their first election in 2001, voters have been choosing parties that challenge the power of the conservative royalist-military establishment. Not even two military coups (2006 and 2014) have persuaded them to abandon their electoral choices. In response, the conservative royalist-military establishment have weaponised the constitutional checks and balance system of unelected watchdog agencies, including the Constitutional Court and the Election Commission. Every time voters make the “wrong” electoral choice, these agencies intervene to rearrange power in line with the conservative royalist-military establishment’s wishes.

Soon after Move Forward delivered its surprise electoral victory, the Election Commission, Constitutional Court, and the junta-appointed Senate mobilised to block it from assuming power. Thaksin-aligned Pheu Thai Party, which placed close second, also lent a hand as it was not ready to play second fiddle to Move Forward. It was the first Thaksin-aligned party to lose an election in over twenty years. When it became clear that Move Forward would struggle to form a viable governing coalition, Thaksin, who remains the de facto Pheu Thai leader, forged a power-sharing deal with several conservative pro-establishment parties, including those linked with the 2014 military junta that overthrew his sister’s government. The deal ensured that Move Forward would not be able to join the Pheu Thai-led coalition government, but this was not enough to appease the conservative establishment. In January 2024, the Constitutional Court ruled that Move Forward’s electoral campaign to reform the lese majesté law was unconstitutional, effectively paving way for its dissolution. While the party kept outwardly optimistic and defiant, it was actively preparing for its dissolution. This allowed it to re-group within two days under a new successor: the People’s Party.

Party dissolutions and their consequences

Move Forward is now the fifth major political party that the Constitutional Court has dissolved since the 2006 military coup. Its predecessor, the progressive Future Forward Party, was dissolved in February 2020 after placing third in the 2019 election. Thaksin-aligned parties have long suffered the same fate. Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party was dissolved less than a year after the 2006 coup, having secured a landslide re-election victory in 2005. Its successor, the People’s Power Party, was dissolved in 2008 after winning the 2007 election. Its second successor, the Pheu Thai Party, has so far managed to avoid a dissolution, but its sister Thai Raksa Chart Party was dissolved during the 2019 election.

A party dissolution in Thailand is not a political death sentence; a dissolved party can quickly reconvene under a new name and leadership, but this should not detract from its severity. Each party dissolution makes the successor party vulnerable to defections as other parties try to poach MPs from the dissolved party for their own benefit. Move Forward lost 10 constituency MPs to other parties after Future Forward was dissolved. Although these 10 MPs were punished by voters at the 2023 election, Move Forward was left in a weaker parliamentary position when it took over Future Forward. People’s Party managed to avoid this fate, showing a remarkable degree of unity when all 143 remaining Move Forward MPs joined it.

Each party dissolution also depletes the formal leadership pool as it is accompanied by a lengthy politics ban for party executives that prohibits them from seeking or holding political office for up to 10 years. The Future Forward dissolution led to a 10-year politics ban for its highly popular and charismatic leader triumvirate: Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, and Pannika Wanich. In 2023, Pannika was banned from politics for life in a controversial ethics probe over a series of old Facebook posts that were deemed disrespectful of the monarchy. The Move Forward dissolution then led to a 10-year politics ban for Pita Limjaroenrat, another highly popular and charismatic leader.

Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut took over the progressive party baton when he was elected the People’s Party leader on 9 August. A 37-year-old tech wiz, computer engineering graduate, and real estate scion, Natthaphong is close to Thanathorn and seems to have all the ingredients to become the next charismatic leader. However, whether he will be able to recreate the same popular appeal as the four leaders before him remains to be seen. He also faces a critical hurdle: an ongoing ethics probe that could see him and several other People’s Party MPs banned from politics for life for endorsing a lese majesté law reform bill during their Move Forward days.

Defiance in the face of authoritarianism

In the wake of the Move Forward dissolution, the former party leadership and MPs remained defiant. Pita sent a strong message to the conservative royalist-military establishment that they would continue working through the parliament to prove that party dissolutions would not stop them. Natthaphong, the new People’s Party leader, promised to continue Move Forward’s progressive agenda with a more cautious approach to the lese majesté law reform. He also announced his party’s new target as a landslide electoral victory in 2027.

Following the Future Forward dissolution, Move Forward enjoyed a surge in public support in the 2023 election, more than doubling Future Forward’s electoral gains. It is possible that the Move Forward dissolution will translate into future electoral gains for the People’s Party, but re-creating the Move Forward electoral success is not going to be easy. The Future Forward dissolution triggered a wave of student-led protests that quickly spilled onto the streets, gripping the country for two years. The protesters demanded democracy and challenged even the previously sacrosanct monarchy. Move Forward was able to capitalise on these protests, incorporating many of their grievances into its electoral campaign. Unable to campaign on the lese majesté law reform, or indeed other issues concerning the monarchy, the People’s Party might lose some of its progressive campaign edge.

Even if the People’s Party secured a landslide electoral victory in 2027, its ability to govern would not be guaranteed. Move Forward won the 2023 election but was blocked from taking power and then dissolved. The same fate could meet the People’s Party as the conservative royalist-military establishment and their key institutional weapons, the Constitutional Court and the Election Commission, continue to hold sway over politics. Thaksin-aligned parties have a legacy of governance which helped them sustain popular support and electoral momentum for over 20 years, surviving two military coups, three party dissolutions, and four court dismissals of their prime ministers. The People’s Party does not have a legacy of governance to build on. Move Forward and Future Forward had strong disruptor and opposition party credentials, but they have not been able to prove themselves in government. Only time will tell whether this will hurt People’s Party ability to grow the progressive support base in the face of continued political and institutional blockage.

Petra Alderman is a Post-Doctoral Research Fellow in Leadership for Inclusive and Democratic Politics at the University of Birmingham, and a Research Fellow at Birmingham’s Centre for Elections, Democracy, Accountability and Representation (CEDAR). She is the author of Branding Authoritarian Nations: Political Legitimation and Strategic National Myths in Military-Ruled Thailand, a book by Routledge published on 28 July 2023.

This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.