China’s push to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor into Afghanistan is reshaping the region’s economic and strategic landscape, posing challenges to India.
Introduction
The strategic landscape of South Asia is undergoing a significant shift. In late July, New Delhi once again voiced its concerns over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), especially as Islamabad and Beijing move forward with plans to expand its flagship infrastructure project in Afghanistan. This expansion represents a strategic deepening of ties between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan—an alliance that alarms New Delhi. India has consistently opposed the CPEC because it passes through the Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi calls illegally occupied territory by Pakistan. Further, it is believed that CPEC’s expansion could limit India’s role in Afghanistan.
Pakistan-China-Afghanistan ties are getting closer
The extension of the CPEC to Afghanistan and deepening Belt and Road Cooperation were agreed upon following a meeting among Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Beijing. This marks a tangible effort to enhance connectivity, economic cooperation, and security collaboration among the three nations. It is not merely an economic initiative but a strategic framework aimed at integrating Afghanistan more closely with its neighbours, thereby fostering regional stability and development.
Afghanistan’s inclusion as a partner in CPEC signals Beijing’s ambition to make the corridor a broader regional project rather than a bilateral arrangement. It reflects China’s vision of connecting South Asia with Central Asia and beyond, creating a vast network of infrastructure projects and economic zones under the umbrella of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
China’s diplomatic engagement has involved addressing ongoing security concerns that have traditionally hampered Afghanistan-Pakistan relations. Pakistan has always accused the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operating from Afghanistan of committing terror acts in the country. In this situation, Beijing’s efforts to facilitate dialogue and cooperation aim to promote cross-border security collaboration, creating a more conducive environment for infrastructure projects like CPEC to thrive.
How will the closer ties benefit the three countries?
The closer ties will benefit each of the three countries.
For Beijing, the expansion of CPEC into Afghanistan is aligned with its grand vision for the BRI. It enhances China’s western access to Central Asia, providing a vital link to energy-rich and resource-abundant countries. By developing overland routes, Beijing can hedge against potential disruptions in sea lanes, thereby enhancing the resilience of its trade and energy supplies while strengthening its strategic presence across Central and South Asia. Expanding CPEC helps China export surplus industrial capacity, secure new and developing markets for its goods, and attract foreign investment in infrastructure projects. Strategically, the corridor bolsters China’s influence in a geopolitically volatile region, positioning it as a key political player capable of influencing the future of South and Central Asia.
Pakistan views CPEC as a transformational project that could revitalise its economy and elevate its strategic standing. Extending the corridor to Afghanistan allows Islamabad to strengthen trade links and create new economic corridors that connect Pakistan’s western borders to Central Asia. This diversification of trade routes could reduce Pakistan’s reliance on maritime routes and open pathways for transit fees, commerce, and investment. Moreover, the corridor enhances Pakistan’s importance as a regional transit hub, potentially attracting investments and generating economic growth in underdeveloped areas. The expansion also helps Pakistan improve relations with Afghanistan. By integrating Afghanistan economically, Pakistan could reduce bilateral tensions and create a more secure western frontier.
Afghanistan is the biggest potential beneficiary of the CPEC extension. The country faces enormous challenges: decades of conflict, fragile governance, economic underdevelopment, and humanitarian crises. Integration into CPEC promises critical infrastructure development, including roads, power grids, and industrial zones, which could stimulate economic activity and create much-needed jobs. Enhanced connectivity with Pakistan and China offers Afghanistan access to new trade routes, reducing its landlocked status and dependence on Western aid and donor assistance. This connectivity, in turn, could attract foreign direct investment, boost exports, and facilitate the movement of goods and people, laying the foundation for Afghanistan’s economic recovery.
A crucial dimension of CPEC’s expansion into Afghanistan is its potential to unlock the country’s vast untapped mineral wealth, estimated at over a trillion US dollars. Decades of conflict and poor infrastructure have kept Afghanistan’s reserves of copper, lithium, rare earths, and other critical minerals largely inaccessible. Due in part to Chinese investment, these resources may be efficiently developed and exported, potentially even positioning Afghanistan as a key supplier of materials vital for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
For Afghanistan, this may offer a path to economic recovery through new jobs, revenue, and possible industrial growth. For China and other partners, it secures access to minerals essential for clean energy, batteries, and high-tech manufacturing. Linking these resources to CPEC’s transport and energy corridors could help integrate Afghanistan deeper into regional supply chains and expand trade routes, while also linking Kabul’s economic future to China and Pakistan’s strategic orbit.
Implications of trilateral cooperation
The deepening trilateral cooperation among China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan through the expansion of CPEC poses a strategic challenge to India’s geopolitical standing in the region. CPEC’s expansion may undermine India’s efforts to cultivate long-term trust and strategic partnerships in Kabul and Central Asia.
Furthermore, China’s key role in this trilateral cooperation helps strengthen its influence over regional security and economic frameworks, and in a way that may marginalise India’s role in the region. In this light, Beijing’s growing footprint allows China to help dictate the terms of regional connectivity while also influencing Afghanistan’s political trajectories.
Conclusion
CPEC expansion exemplifies how economic integration can be used to dilute sour political ties and leverage to address security concerns. The expansion may improve the political ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan, provide economic benefits to both countries, and further strengthen China’s position in the region. However, the new arrangement poses strategic challenges to India.
Amit Ranjan is a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Genevieve Donnellon-May is a Researcher at Oxford Global Society, a non-resident Vasey Fellow at the Pacific Forum and a Fellow at the Indo-Pacific Studies Center. She sits on the advisory board member of Modern Diplomacy and is a Pacific Forum Young Leader.
This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.
