Thomas Hale’s book Long Problems skilfully unpacks the issue of time that prevents humans to adequately formulate and implement responses. He provides a range of options to overcome this challenge, using climate change as the prime example.

Thomas Hale starts his book “Long Problems” with an ingenious story of a sentient carbon atom that was born by nothing else but human intervention. The section concludes: “Only in the last fraction of this geologic second do you grasp that I, the key to your transformation, carry also the threat to upend it.”

Hale creates a thought-provoking picture, preparing the reader for his analysis that is about to follow.  The atom is transformed into an active player, evil in a way but also unable to change what it is, even if it wanted to. And in doing so, Hale overcomes the mental disconnect between climate change and its consequence across time. While his main example is climate change, he uses a myriad of different examples that speak to an audience with various backgrounds, experiences, and expertise as well as interests.

In the analysis that follows, Hale provides an in-depth and impressive account of the political and temporal challenges posed by climate change. Rather than creating new solutions, Hale suggests tools from social science and political theory that societies already have available.

Hale skilfully unpacks the heart of long problems, namely time. The lag between cause and (tangible) effect is a challenge for societies and hence formulating appropriate policy response. He does this through three lenses: the early action paradox, shadow interests, and institutional lag.

Addressing prolonged issues where consequences are felt far into the future, especially when skipping one, let alone two generations, requires early action. Throughout history, humans have struggled to do so, with the prime example being climate change. This creates the dilemma of shadow interests: the lack of incentive for today’s generation to protect the planet for people that do not yet exist and lack the voice to defend their needs. According to Hale, a major predicament that humans face—to be able to deal with governing across time and solve long problems or other vexed challenges—is the inadequacy of established institutions. While still imperfect, two of the probably best, yet imperfect tools are experimentalism and goal setting. Hale uses the example of the Paris Agreement for these two approaches. Despite its wide criticism, the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal to cap global heating at 1.5 degrees Celsius has stimulated global ambition, though not fast enough. Before its ratification, our planet was on course for 4.3 degrees Celsius average warming. Now, if all current commitments are fulfilled, we are instead on track for 2.3 degrees Celsius.

Regardless of the agreement’s shortfalls, Hale argues that a tangible goal that nations can aim to adhere to is critical. It creates a benchmark for best practice and a mechanism for accountability and also ambition. He compares it to athletes who train to reach a target that they have set for themselves rather than exercising just for the sake of it.

Hale states that his intention is not to “re-invent the wheel” but provide possible and existing policy responses for different contexts based on the analysis in previous chapters. For example, he emphasises the need for longer lasting, yet evolving and adaptive institutions as a solution to long problems.

Finally, I want to give Hale praise for choosing the pronouns “she” and “her” when usually we would retreat to the words “he” and “his” such as in business owner, politician or Chief Executive Officer, to name a few.

Still, there are three points that offer food for thought. First, it is worth bringing up the elimination of root causes to solve problems or “systems-thinking.” Over the last few decades climate change has become known as a “wicked problem” requiring more than one solution due to its interconnectedness throughout the economy and social fabric. However, while the consequences of climate change are complex to address, the cause of the problem is not. The simple solution is the reduction of fossil fuel usage as well as emissions from the agricultural sector.

Second, while evolving or future-looking institutions are undoubtedly vital, for climate change and for many other reasons, the importance of political will and the influence of vested interests cannot be stressed enough. Evolving or new institutions, goal setting, and experimentalism cannot be implemented if the political will is absent or influenced by powerful wealthy players that jeopardise progress in the name of profit. But even adapting existing structures requires political will. As evidenced by a recent example from Germany, it is indeed possible. In a move that stunned Europe, the Bundestag voted on the change of a constitutional provision removing the country’s fiscal break for defence spending. A direct response to Russian’s intensifying aggression against Ukraine and fears of a spreading war across Europe as well as a crumbling transatlantic partnership with the US under Donald Trump.

Finally, what if democracies, systems or institutions evolve in the “wrong” direction? The rules-based order that has ensured peace and the world (or the West) has enjoyed over the last 70 years is under fire. A wave of popularist initiatives and far-right political parties with “conservative” views are gaining traction across the globe. Shifts can even be seen in progressive countries such as Germany, France and others within the European Union. These small developments have now culminated in the return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office, resulting in what former US president Joe Biden forewarned as the rise of an oligarchy in a country proud of their liberty and freedom.

Overall, Hale’s book is exceptionally well written and researched. I cannot think many works reach a similar depth, or are as accessible to lay people and academics alike. It is a book worth reading for anyone wanting to explore (and address) long-term problems in any sector of society.

Dr Melanie Pill is a research fellow at the Indo Pacific Development Centre at the Lowy Institute where she leads the climate change agenda. Dr Pill has over a decade of experience in international policy development, climate change finance as well as the economics of climate change and focuses on vulnerable countries, particularly the Pacific. Her areas of expertise range from climate change loss and damage over adaptation to policy development for domestic climate change mitigation.

This review article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.