Aleppo Falls to Opposition Forces as Syrian Conflict Re-erupts

The Syrian civil war, seemingly frozen in an uneasy deadlock for years, has been reignited with rebel forces wresting Aleppo, the country’s second biggest city, from President Bashar al-Assad ’s grasp. While what happens next is uncertain, the ongoing conflict is likely set to drag on with unpredictable consequences for years to come.
In a lightning campaign over the weekend, two opposition factions, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), based in the border enclave of Idlib, and the Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkiye, took control of all of Aleppo as regime forces withdrew.
Once the largest city in Syria, Aleppo remains a key prize. During the height of the conflict in 2015-16 rebel forces held several neighbourhoods, but never before has it been entirely in opposition hands. Capitalising on the momentum of their victory, HTS forces have marched south towards the city of Hama, on the road to the Syrian capital, Damascus.
Assad has decried the opposition forces as “terrorists” and vowed to “crush them.” Russian airplanes, allied with the Syrian regime, have conducted counterstrikes in Aleppo and Idlib, killing militants and civilians, but the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that the rebels’ southward advance continues.
These events are a stunning setback for the Assad regime and have entirely shifted the strategic landscape in Syria. Only twelve months ago, Assad, having ridden out years of conflict, appeared to be sitting pretty. In 2023 he had been readmitted to the Arab League and visited Saudi Arabia to discuss the situation in Gaza with other Arab leaders. Suddenly, his grip on power looks less certain, and his regime looks incapable of reasserting its dominance in Aleppo province, and perhaps beyond.
The conflict in Syria has dragged on so long largely due to the dizzying array of competing forces involved. The Syrian opposition has been notoriously divided, with a range of aspirants pursuing disparate political goals and sharing little beyond a distaste for Assad.
A further complicating factor has been the involvement of external actors. Arab Gulf states, as well as Turkiye and the US, have supported opposition groups, while Russia, Iran, and its proxy force Hezbollah have used their military capabilities to ensure that the Assad regime remains in power.
It was Russia’s decisive intervention on behalf of Assad in late 2015 that turned the tide of the war in his favour and prevented the complete rebel takeover of Aleppo. Russia’s assertiveness effectively put paid to Western attempts to support the overthrow of Assad, with Western attention then directed towards the defeat of the recently emerged Islamic State.
As such, the hapless Syrian population, which rose up in 2011 to demand greater political freedoms, has endured over a decade of conflict during which their homeland has become the theatre in which regional powers compete for supremacy. In a statement on the weekend, Geir Pedersen, UN Special Envoy for Syria, underlined that civilians once again are in peril as the conflict reignites.
It is recent shifts in the regional geopolitical balance, in which every-day Syrians have no say, that have seen conflict erupt once again. Russia is preoccupied with its invasion of Ukraine, and Hezbollah has suffered a series of setbacks at the hands of Israel, from the assassination of key figures to an IDF ground forces invasion of southern Lebanon. Assad’s main backers are thus on the back foot and are less able to spring to his defence, while his military arm, the Syrian Arab Army, is demoralised and weakened after over a decade of war. In these circumstances, HTS and the SNA saw an opportunity to strike against the Syrian regime.
Another factor is the role of Turkiye. Arab leaders and policy makers may have largely resigned themselves to having Assad sticking around, but Turkiye remains cautious as regards rapprochement with the Syrian leader. Turkiye’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke out against the Syrian armed forces’ attacks on its own people at the outset of the civil war, and Turkiye has since played an important role for Syrian opposition groups.
Turkiye harbours grave concerns about the Kurdish-led administration in north-eastern Syria. It has sent its military across its southern border three times since 2016 to target the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, each time occupying territory, and it backs several Sunni-Arab militias in northern Syria. Accordingly, Turkiye has become a key player in Syria, and it is clear that the recent advances of HTS and SNA can only have occurred after receiving a green light from Ankara. Assad’s unwillingness to accept recent attempts from Erdogan to rebuild their relationship is likely to have pushed Turkiye to OK the rebels’ recent march on Aleppo.
That said, the alacrity with which the rebel militias have been able to proceed seems to have taken everybody by surprise. Ankara will have enjoyed seeing Assad being taken down a notch and will be pleased at advances of the SNA, which it has significant control over, having shaped it into a force to pursue Turkish interests in Syria. A strengthened HTS, however, does not necessarily serve Turkish ends.
HTS, having expanded its control over such an important city, raises pertinent questions. The group emerged from Jabhat al Nusra, a Syrian militia linked to Al Qaeda, a link it claims to have since relinquished. Nonetheless, the US State Department, the UN, and Russia all designate it a terrorist organisation, something that UN envoy Geir Pedersen reiterated in his recent statement.
How it will impose its rule in newly captured areas is unclear. In the northwestern Syrian enclave of Idlib, where HTS has long been in control, governance appears to be guided in large measure by Islamic precepts. HTS is aligned with the Syrian Salvation Government, posited as an alternative to the Assad regime, and while it has distanced itself from the extremes of some jihadist groups it is clear that the imposition of Shariah law is a key element of its political and societal agendas.
Nonetheless, HTS has been at pains to assure ethnic and religious minorities resident in Aleppo, including Kurds, Alawis, and Christians, that they are not under threat, with one ministry of the Salvation Government declaring that Syria’s strength lies in its diversity. Thus far, civilians report that HTS fighters have conducted themselves respectfully since entering the city, but fears remain of the long-term implications and impositions of Islamist rule. Elsewhere, however, there are reports that Turkiye-backed SNA militias, which have a track record of human rights abuses, have turned their guns against Kurdish-led SDF positions and targeted Kurdish civilians.
It is also unclear how international actors will react to these developments. Russia may be distracted but it will not be willing to entirely abandon Assad, if only to maintain access to the Khmeimim air base and its naval facility at Tartus, both of which extend its reach into the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has visited Damascus to assure Assad of Tehran’s support.
Ultimately, the Syrian regime has been caught off guard by rebel advances, but it is not necessarily the end game for Assad and his cronies. What is clear is that the mirage of stability has been shattered in Syria and its interminable conflict is set to drag on with unpredictable consequences for its civilian population and the wider region.
Dr William Gourlay teaches Middle East history and politics at Monash University, where he completed his PhD, an examination of Kurdish identity in Turkey. He has previously worked as a teacher, journalist and editor in İzmir (Turkey), London and his native Melbourne. He researches and writes on the history, arts and society of Turkey and its neighbours. He is the author of The Kurds in Erdogan’s Turkey.
This review is published under a Creative Commons Licence and may be republished with attribution.