Whose Right to Exist? The Challenge of Evangelical Beliefs to Self-Determination Across the Pacific

The Pacific Islands’ voting patterns on Palestinian self-determination reveal the complex interplay of geopolitics, development incentives, and shifting religious dynamics. The rise of Evangelism, intertwined with Christian Zionist theology, has increasingly influenced foreign policy decisions, underscoring the cultural and demographic transformations shaping the region’s stance on global issues.
There has been a dramatic turn-away from the advocacy of the university of self-determination by Pacific Islands states, especially in the last decade, tracked via voting patterns at the UN General Assembly on West Papua, Western Sahara, and, most recently, Palestine (such as A/ES-10/L.31/Rev.1). Alongside geopolitics, one of the most important factors explaining this shift lies in the changing religious beliefs and demographics across the Pacific Islands—specifically, the rise of forms of Evangelism and Pentecostalism based in Christian Zionism.
In the wake of the vote on Palestinian self-determination that the majority of Pacific Islands voted against, it is apparent, as Keen and Tidwell have shown, that Pacific Islands Countries are leveraging geopolitical rivalries to maximise their development options. There are some historical comparisons to support this. For instance, four of the five states that de-recognised Western Sahara in 2000 were the new “micro-nations” of the Pacific who, some have argued, were using recognition as a bargaining resource. Morocco was actively involved in derecognition campaigns, using economic incentives and what some have called diplomatic bribery for other states to de-recognise SADR.
Arguably, similar diplomatic overtures such as Washington’s recent promise of substantial aid to the region could be such a lever. Similarly, Israel has contributed some capacity building and technology in the Pacific. Following the Pacific island’s votes against resolution A/ES-10/L.31/Rev.1, Fiji One News explained this was because “Israel has recently provided development assistance to a number of Pacific nations”; however, such aid is not in sufficient amounts to explain this degree of voting behaviour. It is too simple to claim, like Alan MacLeod, that the Pacific Islands voted against Palestinian self-determination because they were “the only countries the US dollar could buy.”
A more layered explanation must include the shifting cultures and religion of the Pacific islands. As the recent volume Beyond Belief (2022) has shown, faith-based approaches to international politics—and especially climate change—are extremely important across the Pacific. This importance of Christian religion has been echoed by many, such as Tiezzi and Green, to explain Pacific votes against Palestinian self-determination. MacDonald has claimed that it was not just that Pacific states were over 90 percent Christian but also the importance of kinship in these cultures, and the access to material benefits that come through this. In this vein, many Evangelical believers in the Pacific states have decided “to accommodate Israel within local kinship networks” to become closer to god’s Chosen.
Adding to this is Wyeth, who shows how much of the Pacific evangelism has an “eschatological understanding of humanity,” especially in Pentecostal, Baptist, and Independent traditions. The rapture and tribulations (where great suffering takes place before Christ’s return) are prevalent. Natural disasters, climate change, and global events are often interpreted as signs of the approaching end times—Matthew 24: 7-8 or Luke 21: 25-26 are popular motifs. For example, Assemblies of God (AOG) in Fiji and the South Seas Evangelical Church (SSEC) in the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea compare natural disasters to scriptural predictions of the end-times; some leaders in the Church of Tuvalu see sea level rise as fulfillment of biblical prophecies recommending stewardship and resilience. At its General Synod, the United Church of Christ passed a resolution called “The Earth is the Lord’s-Not Ours to Wreck,” suggesting this was God’s will instead.
Within these Evangelical teachings the element of Christian Zionism that holds how the return of Jews to Israel is the fulfillment of biblical prophecy has become widespread. As MacDonald reports, the view is especially prevalent across Melanesia that these peoples are descended from the lost tribes of Israel. This view is prevalent in Fiji, reinforced by the experiences of the Fijian peacekeepers who have mostly served on Israel’s southern border with Egypt.
Many Pacific evangelical churches have adopted this theology, encouraging solidarity with Israel’s political actions. Jerusalem is seen as the focal point of Christ’s return and the establishment of His millennial kingdom. Nauru recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in 2019 and PNG moved its embassy to Jerusalem with Prime Minister James Marapa saying: “For us to call ourselves Christians, paying respect to God will not be complete without recognizing that Jerusalem is the universal capital of the people and nation of Israel.”
The vote on UNGA A/ES-10/L.25 shows the direct support of Israel among the Pacific islands. 121 states voted in favour of a resolution calling for protection of civilians and upholding legal and humanitarian obligations in the Gaza crisis. The 14 states voting against the resolution were Fiji, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga. Of the 44 abstaining, these included Kiribati, Palau, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Samoa was absent.
Prophetic conferences and teachings by international Evangelical speakers across the region reinforce this voting behaviour. These are often linked to American-based and resource rich Christian Zionist churches. For example, the South Pacific Evangelical Alliance Region (SPEAR), part of the World Evangelical Alliance (WEA), works to provide resources for its global mission, offering strategic guidance for preachers/churches in the Pacific. The Evangelical Fellowship of the South Pacific (EFSP) is focused on grassroots-level ministry and regional collaborations. These are separate bodies but, taken as a whole, are culturally transforming Christian doctrines and demographics across the region.
Demographically it is important to identify not just the role of Christianity but which denominations form the majority in each island—and what they are teaching. Traditionally, the Pacific Islands were predominantly influenced by mainline Christian denominations introduced during the 19th and early 20th centuries, such as Anglican, Methodist, and Catholic churches. Today, in nearly all of the Pacific Island states with shifting views on self-determination, we can track rises in the Evangelical population. For example, as of recent estimates by the Joshua Project, a missionary evangelical group, 26.34 percent of Fiji’s population now identifies as evangelical Christian, with an Evangelical growth rate of 2.1 percent, making huge inroads against the Methodist majority reported in the 2007 Census and the Catholic majority in 1996 Census. Samoa and Tonga also show increases, though the growth rate is less. In Solomon Islands, while the percentages between denominations have remained remarkably similar, there has been tremendous growth from 73 percent in 2009 identifying as Christian to 93 percent identifying as Christian in 2019. This shows the incredible speed of the consolidation of Christian beliefs.
This also tends to support Timor-Leste’s unique position as, arguably, the remaining consistent supporter of self-determination. Of course, as the newest member state, its battle for self-determination is in the people’s lived experience and political culture. It often recalls that it recognised Palestine in 2004. And unlike its Pacific Island neighbours, it has one of the highest density population of Catholics in the world with over 97.5 percent, leaving it, so far, largely immune to Evangelism. Nevertheless, it remains constrained by geopolitics, reticent to discuss West Papuan self-determination given Indonesia’s strong presence and need for ongoing reconciliation processes, going so far as to ban solidarity protests during the Pope’s visit in 2024.
The rise of Evangelism is actively displacing traditional spiritual, faith-based systems across the Pacific. There are clear linkages with this phenomenon and decline in support of self-determination, especially for Palestine, across the Pacific. Pacific Island states should be wary of playing into such rifts in international law on the grounds of belief, as the repercussions for losing the universality of self-determination will have profound effect for all peoples, especially those under existential threats themselves.
This article is part two of a two-part series.
Dr Shannon Brincat is a Senior Lecturer at the University of the Sunshine Coast
This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.