The pre-poll rigging in Pakistan, involving the expulsion of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) as a political entity, underscores the broader erosion of democratic principles nationally. The consequences are likely to be regional and even global if Pakistan’s slide towards autocracy continues.  

In the intricate tapestry of global geopolitics the health of democracy in one nation often reverberates across borders. As Pakistan grapples with the complexities of its political landscape, currently embroiled in controversies surrounding elections to be held on 8 February 2024, the state’s machinery has constrained the largest political party—Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI). Free and fair elections constitute a linchpin in shaping the political trajectory of any nation, and Pakistan stands as no exception to this rule. The significance of democratic processes goes beyond national borders, playing a pivotal role in ensuring both political stability and global credibility, particularly in strategic and economic relationships. They are of paramount importance for economic growth, attracting foreign investment, and enhancing the overall quality of life for citizens.

A politically stable Pakistan assumes significance for regional security, given its geopolitical importance as a nuclear power and key transit state for resources into China Central Asia.

The disqualification of Imran Khan from holding public office has already rattled internal political institutions. It is based on a controversial trail of 202 legal cases, including a Toshakhana reference (state gift) and treason case. The charges underscore a concerning trend of legal manoeuvres aimed at sidelining opposition figures. The enforced disappearances of PTI leaders, along with their coerced pledges of allegiance to synthetic political parties, which emerged a few months back in the Pakistani political arena, and their dissociation from politics, has contributed adversely to the erosion of democratic processes within the country.

Peaceful protests organised by PTI have faced crackdowns, often marked by excessive force and arbitrary arrests, which highlight the broader suppression of democratic voices in the country. Limitations on media coverage of PTI’s activities, coupled with the intimidation of journalists critical of the government, pose threats to press freedoms and hinder public access to diverse perspectives. The institutional practices of gerrymandering and voter suppression have been specifically directed towards supporters of the PTI in pivotal constituencies. In its recent action, the Supreme Court of Pakistan took the unprecedented step of endorsing the decision of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to strip the PTI of its designated party symbol, the cricket bat. This development has restricted the PTI candidates from campaigning under a unified party symbol. PTI candidates are now running as enforced independents with different symbols. This not only adds confusion to the entire election process but also poses a challenge for a significant number of voters in Pakistan, especially those in rural areas with limited literacy, as they traditionally cast their votes based on party symbols. It has raised serious concerns regarding the credibility of the forthcoming general elections, and adds another layer to Pakistan’s entanglement with militarised politics, marked by pre-poll rigging. Such antics portray the nation as ostensibly unstable, unguided, and undemocratic.

It is perhaps no surprise that this brazen violation of the constitution and the clampdown on PTI has further constricted the civic space in Pakistan. As the nation faces a deepening political and economic crisis, the erosion of trust in the state and its institutions will continue, pushing Pakistan to the edge of becoming a failed state. With such a state of affairs, those that can will move to seek refuge in economically and politically stable states either through emigration or illegal human trafficking. The subsequent brain drain of skilled citizens will reinforce negative feedback in what Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson in Why Nations Fail call the “vicious circle.” In other words, extractive political institutions support more extractive economic institutions, eroding the checks and balances that stop would-be oligarchs from assuming control of the state and expropriation the assets of others. These extractive institutions not only pave the way for civil unrest and even regime change, but they engender continuous infighting and civil conflict because the centralization of state power is missing.

It is for this reason that global actors need to engage with the current regime and ensure a free and fair election process. Several key measures can be taken: establishing independent international monitoring bodies, applying diplomatic pressure through bilateral and multilateral channels, supporting local civil society organisations, implementing targeted sanctions or incentives, offering technical assistance for electoral infrastructure, advocating for media freedom, facilitating dialogue between the ruling regime and opposition, providing post-election support, conducting public awareness campaigns, and deploying international election oversight missions. These collective efforts can promote transparency, accountability, and democratic principles, and contribute to credible electoral processes.

Considering that Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world, characterised by a significant number of educated individuals with a keen political awareness and with strong religious influence, political stability is paramount. This is important not simply for national security, but also for regional and even international security.

Dr Seema Khan focuses on South Asian relations and the broader global context, reflecting her commitment to advancing knowledge in the realms of politics and international relations.