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Trump on Gaza: Peace in Two Tweets

23 Jan 2025
By David Livingstone
Benjamin Netanyahu with Donald Trump at the Ben Gurion airport. Source: Amos Ben Gershom GPO, Israel Ministty of Foreign Affairs / https://t.ly/a9wtQ

Former President Joe Biden was in full victory parade mode when he celebrated the ceasefire in Gaza that may lead to peace, but was it President Donald Trump and his bullying, tweeting diplomacy that solved this seemingly intractable Gordian knot?

Trump’s presidency 1.0 was known for conducting diplomacy through social media, often in less than 280 characters. And that continued even in advance of President Trump 2.0.

Trump has not been shy about throwing America’s might around, such as when he threatened North Korea with “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” As we know, Trump flipped the script on that and reached out to Kim Jong Un and made dramatic overtures to the hereditary dictator, including stepping into North Korea. All of this was against the advice of the US military and foreign policy establishment.

United States’ power and influence, especially when unconstrained, is enormous. Trump’s advantage in this unconventional diplomacy is that his view and use of US power is unconstrained by advice of the military or foreign policy establishment, detailed planning for execution or implementation, and some would argue, even by a moral compass.

In December, Trump used social media to threaten Hamas that if the Israeli hostages were not released by the time of his inauguration, “those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to support this view when he thanked Trump for his strong statement. Trump had set a deadline, and Hamas was under significant pressure. And given Hamas’ subsequent actions, Hamas felt itself to be dangerously in Trump’s crosshairs, as evidenced by its seeming eagerness for a ceasefire agreement.

Perhaps more surprising was Trump’s subsequent social media post featuring a video by Jeffrey Sachs, a fierce critic of Netanyahu and the conduct of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza (and the West Bank), in which Sachs described Netanyahu as a “deep, dark son of a bitch.”

So why would the self-described “best friend that Israel has ever had” attack Israel’s key decision maker in the hostage/ceasefire negotiations? Perhaps it was Trump’s way of signalling that both Hamas and Israel, or more specifically, Netanyahu, were at risk of US action should they impede or prevent an agreement on the release of the hostages.

That would make sense in terms of encouraging a negotiation and agreement that was not too one sided. Trump styles himself as a deal-maker, and he may not be averse to knocking a few heads together to get an agreement. It also suggests that even close allies of the US are not immune to Trump laying on the pressure when he thinks it warranted.

Trump’s approach raises questions about the common characteristics of his social media diplomacy. Apart from the historical novelty of it, the main one is that it is a direct communication between Trump and the decision makers. There are no filters of bureaucratic considerations or secondary actor to secondary actor messaging that filters up to the key decision makers. Trump deals directly with leaders, imposing an uncomfortable accountability on the target of his tweets. And it seems surprisingly effective.

Another key point is the credibility that Trump’s threats carry. Unburdened by what many would see as prudent consideration or caution, or even niceties, Trump speaks in a cavalier way, and the general suspicion, indeed fear, is that he is capable of acting in an equally cavalier manner.

There is significant debate about whether the US is a waning power, but for the time being, that does not matter. The US has the world’s largest economy and most powerful military, and that is what Trump is prepared to wield against those who do not bend to Trump’s demands. Trump deals in naked power, and the world pays attention because he does.

Through his social media postings on Gaza and the Israeli hostages, Trump has announced to the world he is back. Trump 2.0 has learned from the lessons of his first presidency. He has cleared his new administration of people who see themselves as the adults in the room, or as a moderating force on the Commander in Chief. With a cabinet of cheerleaders, Trump will effectively lead a government of one. And when Trump tweets, people will understand that he does so backed by America’s economic and military might, and they will respond accordingly, and most likely, compliantly.

David Livingstone is a former Australian diplomat.

This article is published under a Creative Commons Licence and may be republished with attribution.