The Québec election results of October can be interpreted first as a resounding vote of confidence in the Coalition Avenir Party for its handling of the pandemic and an illustration of the overwhelming strength of nationalism in Québec.

The Québec election of 2022 was supposed to put to rest the independence issue and confirm the end of ideological confrontation between the two historic governing parties and dissipate any threat to Canadian unity. No more divisive referenda on independence.  Everyone knew the Coalition Avenir Party (CAQ) would win big time and it did so by electing 90 deputies out of 125. Premier François Legault’s reelection was never in doubt.

In 2018, the nationalist CAQ succeeded in making that election about the economy, good governance, and more provincial autonomy within the Canadian federation. The CAQ had ostensibly found its place in the constellation of governing parties in Québec that hitherto had been limited to two political parties.

There are now five main political parties in Québec. There is the victorious CAQ, a strong nationalist party having obtained a second consecutive majority mandate from the Québec people to govern. This was achieved by essentially capturing the majority of Liberal (PLQ) and former Parti Québécois (PQ) French-speaking voters.  Premier Legault’s handling of the persistent COVID 19 crisis was validated by the electorate as was the CAQ economic record. Contrary to the wishes of the federal government, Legault, an ex- PQ Minister before converting to federalism, refused to endorse higher immigration levels to ease the worker shortage in the name of saving the French language and culture from assimilation.

The PLQ suffered a humiliating loss both in the popular vote and seats. Its score with Francophone voters was abysmal. Despite this setback, the Party held onto most of the Anglophone and Allophone seats on the island of Montréal and remains the official opposition with 20 seats. Its leader could not survive the post-election intrigue and back stabbing and resigned her direction of the party.

Québec Solidaire (QS), a leftist party in favor of an independent Québec, failed to establish much traction during the campaign. QS received a similar score in 2018 both in popular vote (15 percent) and elected candidates (+1 to 11).

The PQ obtained just under 15 percent of the popular vote and three seats (down from 7 in 2018). Their leader, Jean-Pierre Plamondon (known as PSPP) revealed himself to be an artful campaigner whose leadership defied the predictions of political pundits forecasting the demise of the PQ.

In 2018, the Conservative Party (PCQ) was absent. In four years, under the leadership of Éric Duhaime, the PCQ rose from the dead and collected 13 percent of the popular vote but with no seats. Their increase in the popular vote reflects popular opposition to government anti-COVID 19 vaccine mandates in addition to ideologically right of center concepts like less government.

The massive CAQ victory can be interpreted as a mandate to continue nationalistic measures like Bills 21 and 96. Bills 21 is a curb placed on religious symbols adorned by officials in positions of authority like judges, police officers, and other officials in positions of authority. Some Muslims oppose the law, perceiving it as an affront to Islamic tradition in the name of secularism. Bill 96 is a reform of the Charter of the French language, expanding its scope in an effort to encourage the use of French especially on the island of Montréal. Legault’s able management of the COVID 19 pandemic was also a reason why voters felt confident giving the CAQ another majority mandate.

Some observers say that the real story of the election occurred after the vote counting. Despite Premier Legault’s solemn promise to change the electoral system to make it fairer, the 2022 election highlighted glaring disparities and absurdities of the present electoral system.

With less than 12 deputies, QS does not have enough to become a recognized party by the National Assembly. A recognized party receives funds for office workers, research assistants, participation in parliamentary committees, and time allotted during Question Period.

QS is not the only political party with an axe to grind. The PCQ received 13 percent of the vote yet no deputies were elected. The vote was dispersed across the province.

The PQ elected three deputies and collected just under 15 percent of the popular vote. Not enough for the PQ to achieve party status either.

Yet, the Liberals with less of the popular vote than either QS or the PQ became the official opposition. Given the PLQ’s poor performance (they came dead last in 60 ridings), their leader decided to resign and give up her status as deputy. The 2022 election highlighted the unfairness of the vote especially the seat count, which disenfranchises voters from PCQ, PQ, and QS. Although the CAQ has promised negotiations with the jilted parties, honoring its first promise of electoral reform four years ago would have spared Québec this democratic headache and social trauma.

Then just when the dust had settled, PSPP and his two other independantist colleagues issued a mise en garde indicating that they would be unable to accept a part of the oath taking ceremony. Specifically, PSPP refuses to recognize the British monarchy. QS, also officially in favor of Québec independence, was suddenly put on the spot. In 2018, QS members held their noses and took the oath of allegiance to Queen Elizabeth anyway. PSPP’s refusal to take the oath suddenly put QS in a quandary. Why take the oath if you do not believe in it? PSPP’s refusal to be ‘pragmatic’ has placed QS in a delicate situation since part of its grassroots organization and support comes from urban Anglophone ridings that are monarchy-neutral or pro-monarchy.

PSPP’s refusal is also having an impact on the CAQ, which, for now, is a happy confluence between ex-pequist (PQ) supporters and those who have federalist aims and intentions. One suspects that CAQ deputies and federalists and ex-PQ) would prefer banning oaths to the British monarchy for all deputies.

In light of extensive juridical constitutional advice and opinions, the CAQ appears to have found a way around the oath-taking difficulty by resolving to introduce a new law making the oath only applicable to the Québec nation and its people, not to the British monarchy.

Meanwhile, in the federal capital, some Liberal deputies added fuel to the fire by raising the specter of banning any who refuse the oath from taking their seats in the House of Commons. Such a maneuver by the Canadian parliament would apply to independantist (Bloc Québecois) deputies, who, like many including some federalists, took the oath as pure protocol.

The October result can be interpreted first as a resounding vote of confidence in the CAQ for its handling of the pandemic. The popular vote illustrates the overwhelming strength of nationalism in Québec. However, it also confirmed the desperate need for electoral reform to ensure that voters are not disenfranchised in what is now a five-party field.

The famous American author Mark Twain once quipped that news of his demise had been greatly exaggerated. The Quebec election of 2022 confirmed that independence is on the table.

Could it be that the old ideological quarrel between federalists and independentists has simply been grafted onto the CAQ and is again represented by two factions and 90 deputies?  In this regard, the 2022 election can be seen as a re-incarnation of the polarity between federalists and independentists now manifest within CAQ ranks itself.

Quebec independence is far from dead and will certainly rear its head during the next four years.

Dr Bruce Mabley is the director of the Mackenzie-Papineau Group think tank based in Montreal devoted to analysis of international politics. Dr Mabley is a former Canadian diplomat and academic who has written a number of analytical and academic texts. In 2002, he was decorated by the French Republic as Chevalier des Palmes académiques.

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