Even if the electoral success of the Move Forward Party does not end at triumph in parliament, the people of Thailand, and particularly the youth, have spoken. The Monarchy may continue to exist, but its foundations are thinning out.  

Thailand organised its landmark elections on 14 May 2023 after almost a decade of Thai politics being dominated by the military. The result of the elections was startling, with the progressive party, Move Forward, winning the majority of the votes. Not only did the electoral victory of the Move Forward Party threaten the existence of the military in politics, but it also broke up the electoral domination of the Pheu Thai party which had until now won every election since 2001.

Three years ago, the Future Forward Party, the predecessor of the Move Forward Party, was dissolved by the Constitutional Court on the ground that the party was loaned US$6 million from its leader, Thanathorn Juangrungruangkit, hence violating election laws regarding donations to political parties. The Future Forward Party quickly became the target of annihilation due to its program to demilitarise politics, and more importantly, to initiate the reform of the monarchy and the draconian lèse-majesté law. Lèse-majesté is a crime of injury to royalty punishable by 3 to 15 years in prison.

The public’s overwhelming support for the Move Forward Party must be interpreted in the context of the ever more open debate about the role of the military and monarchy in politics in recent years. In 2020, students took to the streets of Bangkok calling for immediate monarchical reforms. These protests spread rapidly throughout Thailand. This was the first time when the monarchy—a taboo subject in Thailand—has been officially made a public agenda. These students were the main supporters for the Move Forward Party.

It is therefore unmistakable that the electoral victory of the Move Forward Party represents a public mandate for the reforms of Thailand’s key institutions. While tackling the problem of the military in politics is possible, the discussion of the monarchy has remained fiercely off-limits. Right at the beginning of the reign of King Vajiralongkorn, who succeeded the throne in 2016, Thais witnessed an increasingly active intervention in politics by the new monarch. He requested the amendment of the constitution to empower himself. He took over the super-rich Crown Property Bureau. He also transferred some military regiments to his direct command. His political ambition has become boundless.

Meanwhile, the new generation, who has been able to escape long years of royal propaganda as a tool of the previous reign under King Bhumibol Adulyadej, has begun to question the unconstitutional role of the monarchy despite the lèse-majesté law. Thai youths today possess a different set of ideas regarding legitimacy and political power which explained their demand of a more transparent monarchy. The response by King Vajiralongkorn to these ideas of the youths has been ruthless. Protest leaders have been arrested, and some charged with lèse-majesté. It was shocking to see, recently, a 15-year-old girl imprisoned under the lèse-majesté charge.

While it remains to be seen what will happen to the Move Forward Party and whether its leader, Harvard-graduate Pita Limjaroenrat, will become the next Thai prime minister, a plot to undermine the supposed threats to the monarchy has already thickened. Attempts to disqualify Pita have quickly gained pace. He has been accused of holding shares in what seem to be a defunct media company, which his enemies say is against election laws. If successful, Pita could be banned from politics and even imprisoned at the hands of the Constitutional Court.

The next hurdle will come from the decision of the Senate. Under the current constitution written by the junta in the aftermath of the 2014 coup, the nomination of prime minister must be approved more than half of the combined Upper and Lower Houses. The Upper House, or the Senate, consists of all the 250 junta-appointed members. With 500 members of the Lower House, Pita will need to secure more than 375 votes to achieve his premiership. It is however unlikely that the Senate and other opposing parties will vote for him. Thus, his premiership is likely a non-starter.

Other tactics to eliminate Pita  and his party, of course, include the possibility of a military coup.

Amid the uncertainty of the next phase of Thai politics, King Vajiralongkorn has been eerily quiet. In the lead up to the previous elections in 2019, Vajiralongkorn issued a statement reminding Thai people to “support good people to rule this country”— a message interpreted as a disapproval of parties hostile toward the monarchy. In 2023, Vajiralongkorn refrained from communicating directly with the public. One could argue that he has been aware of his falling popularity, particularly after the 2020 protests. The electoral triumph of the Move Forward Party suggests he may be right.

Seven years after the death of King Bhumibol, the monarchy has fallen into a crisis of its own existence. The succession of Vajiralongkorn has worsened the situation, owing to his own political agenda and his unwillingness to accept self-reforms. The 2020 youth protests and the electoral triumph of the Move Forward Party have simply accelerated the declining process of the monarchy. Even if Pita and his party are to be deprived of legitimate power, there is nothing to guarantee the longevity of the centuries-old monarchy.

The declining process of the monarchy is irreversible. The taboo of the discussion of the monarchy has been broken, like a Genie let out of the bottle she can no longer be returned. In the meantime, there has been no sign from the monarchy and its supporting institutions to even consider power concession. The Thai voters have spoken. Thai youths in particular want to build their own future, quite possibly one without the corrupt royal institution.

Pavin Chachavalpongpun is associate professor at Kyoto University’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies.

This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.