In Spain, the votes are on the rise for the political right. With the EU Presidency at stake, many worry a new government with far-right links may spell trouble for broader liberal democracy.  

In local and regional elections in Spain held on 28 May 2023, the national governing coalition parties, the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) and Unidos Podemos (UP), performed very poorly, losing many important public office positions within lower levels of government. This surprising outcome caused Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) to call for a snap election for 23 July. The May election outcomes suggest that there is a deep split between the political left and right, and between centralists and decentralists (or regional nationalists).

Calling early elections is a political gamble, since current polls suggest the conservative opposition Popular Party (PP) will receive the most votes – though not a majority at this point. One possibility is that the PP will form a coalition with VOX, a far right party with critical views of the European Union (EU), climate change, and immigration. The EU’s leadership is undoubtedly concerned given that Spain just assumed the Council of the EU Presidency in June. The EU is already dealing with democratic backsliding in other countries that have far right parties in governing positions.

It seems that Sánchez is hoping that as coalitions between PP and far right VOX form at local and regional levels, the Spanish public will hedge on the national vote with PSOE. The far right association between PP and VOX certainly has the potential to evoke painful memories of Spain’s Francoist far right past. If this bet fails, the likely outcome will be either a coalition between the PP and VOX or a stalemate, and new elections will be called again—neither seems like a good outcome.

Until 2015 national level politics remained a two-party system between the center left PSOE and center right PP, with regional nationalist parties and the Izquierda Unida (IU) as minor players. However, a number of crises, including the Catalan independence movement and the euro crisis, which manifested itself in Spain with a collapse of the housing market and banking industry requiring a bank bailout, caused new political parties to emerge, making it more challenging to form a government. The push for Catalan independence brought a centrist liberal party, Ciudadanos (Cs), to the fore as a counter to Catalan nationalism. On the far right emerged VOX, founded in 2013 by Santiago Abascal, in opposition to Catalan independence, decentralisation across Spain, and immigration.

Meanwhile, from the far left emerged Unidos Podemos (UP), a response to the economic crisis in Spain founded in 2014 by Pablo Iglesias Turrión, a political science professor. These new parties changed the political landscape and made it challenging for any one party to win a majority. Between 2015 and 2019, this new multi-party environment resulted in four separate national elections. This only ended in 2020 when a coalition government between the PSOE and UP was formed, the first coalition since the democratic transition in 1978. Sánchez’s call to bring forward the elections, originally scheduled for December, could upset the relative political stability in place since 2020.

In the recent May regional and local elections, newer parties such as UP and Cs, as well as the PSOE, lost ground to the PP, but also to newcomer VOX.  The outcome of the May elections suggests both voter realignment (when voters choose a different mainstream party) and dealignment (when voters choose newcomers to the political scene). In 2015, dealignment occurred with new political parties, UP and Cs, attracting voters away from the two main parties, the PP and PSOE.

The recent elections suggest that voters have realigned, choosing the PP over the PSOE and other parties. The Cs, for instance, did so poorly they will not be running in the July election. UP also had a weak showing, keeping only 14 of the 46 deputies it won in the 2019 regional elections. The election losses for these newer parties suggests the dealignment of 2015 was short-lived.

In May’s local elections the PP won 31.5 percent of the vote, a 9 percent increase from 2019. By contrast the PSOE won only 28.2 percent with a 1.2 percent decrease from 2019. Twelve regions in Spain chose new leaders. From the ten regions which were PSOE-led, only three remained in their control. Several of the other regions will be PP led, but for the most part the PP will need to form a coalition with VOX in order to govern. Major cities like Valencia and Seville saw PP take mayoral victories away from PSOE. In the city of Madrid, the PP won an absolute majority.

The May elections also demonstrate dealignment with stronger support for newcomer VOX. VOX more than doubled their number of local councilors to 7.2 percent, which means they will have a strong influence in those localities where the PP will need their support. VOX’s gains have many concerned as far-right parties continue to make electoral gains across Europe.

Sánchez’s political gamble could have ramifications for Spain’s leadership during its EU presidency. If the PP and VOX assume government, it may put Spain in a weaker position leading the EU through a war in Ukraine and dealing with the challenges of immigration and democratic backsliding in Europe. With a hot summer, and when most people are on vacation, it is not clear if Sánchez’s call for early elections will pan out, but mail-in ballots will most likely increase compared to the 2019 elections.

The priorities of the Spanish EU Presidency are already set, but who actually executes them and creates the political narrative behind them does have an impact on setting the tone of the next six months for the EU. As Spaniards try to enjoy their summer holidays, a looming election creates uncertainty for Spain and Europe’s futures.

Carolyn Dudek is Professor and Chair of Political Science at Hofstra University. She was a Fulbright Scholar in Spain and is author of EU Accession and Spanish Regional Development: winners and losers.

This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.