Indonesia looks to forge stronger bonds with other countries in the Global South, an effort exemplified in its growing bilateral ties with Nigeria. Under President-elect Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia is seeking a prominent role as a leader of the Global South.

Prabowo Subianto, the President-elect of Indonesia, has proclaimed that his incoming government will pursue a “friends to all” foreign policy, adhering to Indonesia’s traditional non-aligned foreign policy. Prabowo’s foreign policy doctrine also aims to bolster South-South cooperation between Indonesia and other Global South countries in Asia and Africa. In June, Prabowo stated that during his presidency, “there will be a special focus on Africa, a continent close to my heart, just like Indonesia, a land of opportunity.”   

Prabowo’s recent overseas trips to places including Australia, Russia, Europe, and the Middle East indicates that he will adopt an outward-looking foreign policy, trying to transform Indonesia into a proactive middle power, shaping international politics. This is in stark contrast to President Jokowi Widodo’s inward-looking foreign policy.  

Prabowo, who will officially take office in October, will represent Indonesia at this year’s G20 Summit in Rio. The Group of 20 (the G20) is composed of most of the world’s largest economies and is the world’s premier forum for international economic cooperation. Today, the grouping comprises 21 members, including Indonesia, South Africa, and the African Union (AU). At the Rio Summit, Prabowo will likely want to make a strong impression and project Indonesia’s middle power and South leadership on the international stage. Together with South Africa and the AU, Prabowo might want to lead efforts for the full membership of Nigeria in the grouping. 

This, of course, would align with Indonesia’s foreign policy and economic interests. Indonesia and Nigeria already enjoy a cordial and deepening bilateral relationship, with both nations being members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Moreover, Indonesia is the most populous country in Southeast Asia, while Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation. Indonesia is currently on the cusp of becoming a global economic powerhouse and is projected to become the fourth largest economy in the world by 2050. Meanwhile, Nigeria is estimated to become the world’s fifth largest economy by 2075.  

Nigeria is also Indonesia’s largest trading partner in Africa. Trade between the two countries increased from US$4.7 billion in 2022 to $6 billion in 2023. At present, over fifteen Indonesian companies are operating in Nigeria, spanning sectors such as agriculture, mining, energy, oil, pharmaceuticals, and health. Additionally, from 2017 to 2022 Nigerian exports to Indonesia skyrocketed from an annual rate of $148 million in 2017 to $1.9 billion in 2022. Key Nigerian exports to Indonesia include crude oil petroleum, cocoa beans, and nitrogenous fertilizers. In September 2024, Nigeria and Indonesia signed a Memorandum of Understanding aimed at advancing and strengthening palm oil cooperation between the two countries. Indonesia is the world’s largest palm oil exporter, while Nigeria is Africa’s largest palm oil producer.  

Indonesia has a strong legacy of leadership in the Global South. The country hosted the historic 1955 Asian-African conference in Bandung, which subsequently laid the foundations for the formation of NAM in 1961. In recent years, Indonesia has increasingly reaffirmed itself as a leader of the Global South. For example, at the 60th Anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in Jakarta, Indonesia formally led calls for greater and permanent Asian and African representation in the United Nations Security Council. The Jakarta Conference, with the theme Strengthening South-South Cooperation to Promote World Peace and Prosperity, was attended by delegates from 109 Asian and African countries.  

At the recently concluded second Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali, Jokowi pledged that Indonesia would defend the interests of the Global South. Participants of the forum agreed to enhance economic cooperation between Indonesia and other Global South countries, particularly from Africa. Indonesia’s efforts to strengthen its influence among Global South nations align with the country’s economic interests. Indonesia is seeking to diversify its export and import markets, as it continues to purchase more food and crude oil from African countries every year. Mohammed Idris, Nigeria’s minister for Information and National Orientation, represented Nigeria at the forum, revealing their plan and desire to deepen economic and strategic ties with Indonesia. Jokowi also introduced Prabowo as his successor at the event.  

Overall, Indonesia is well aware of its increasing international stature, and this new-found confidence has been boosted by Indonesia’s successful hosting of the 2022 G20 summit in Bali. Under Indonesian leadership, the summit successfully manufactured a joint declaration, which was somewhat surprising considering that the summit was held amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ultimately, through its leadership role in the South, Indonesia could begin to exert some of its growing global economic and political clout in shaping the Western-dominated international system. Prabowo might view the Rio Summit as a great opportunity to start asserting his ambitious foreign policy agenda early on his presidency. 

Ridvan Kilic is a graduate of the Master of International Relations course at La Trobe University. He is a Diploma of Indonesian student at Deakin University. His research interests include Australian foreign policy, the Australia-Indonesia bilateral relationship, the ASEAN-Australia relationship, ASEAN, and Indonesian foreign policy. Ridvan’s primary focus is Australia, Indonesia, ASEAN regionalism, and the Indo-Pacific.

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