Navigating MAGA Expansionism: The Role of Middle Powers in Global Stability

MAGA is the manifestation of the ailing disillusionment of a society in remission. It is a manifestation of a society reassessing its past, looking for reassurance, demanding respect, and attempting to sustain dignity in an evolving global order. Trump’s intimation of a predatory foreign policy is more than a dimming of the guiding light on the hill, it is a signal of something more sinister. As Margaret MacMillan notes, world wars and great depression do not come out of the clear blue sky; they happen because previous restraints on bad behaviour have weakened.
Mr Trump’s praising of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s incursion into Syria or Vladimir Putin as savvy for invading Ukraine emboldens others with similar expansionist tendencies. These behaviours erode the constraints intended to prevent illegal annexations. Indeed, they legitimise China’s claim over Taiwan and the South China Sea, and Venezuela’s claim to the oil-rich border region in neighbouring Guyana.
Great people and great societies have been manipulated into behaving in ways history reveals as aberrations. National security has been the basis for the stigmatisation of communities as criminals, advocating for deportation en-masse as a relevant policy response. National Security has also legitimised organised propaganda and deliberate misinformation, disregard for treaties, and justification for territorial annexation. Japan, Italy, and Germany reflect on their aberrations as regrettable periods charged by the irrational expansionist delusions of charismatic leaders and vulnerable citizens. History ought not only be a judgement of our failures, it also ought to be an advisor to the future; history offers insurance against sudden shocks.
The uncertainty of American support for Ukraine, wavering commitment to the founding principles of NATO, or to other trade and international agreements necessitates middle powers to be prepared to go it alone. The Trump shock should prompt middle powers to be more expedient in preparing for an unpredictable and uncertain America in an increasingly unknowable and unmanageable geo-political reality.
Rationalisation, dismissal, or acquiescence of Trump’s predatory buster risks emboldening a bully; worse, it enables the psychological mobilisation of millions of supporters of “wolf state diplomacy” under the banner of MAGA.
In the short-term, during Trump’s presidency, middle powers must find ways to navigate past the assertiveness, if not coerciveness, of American multilateralism. While American military spending has historically exceeded that of all other members of NATO, others must escalate defence spending and prepare to assume greater responsibility for global security. While no other nation can afford to match American defence funding, middle powers must be prepared to offer at least such sufficient contributions as to make their alliance a necessity rather than a nicety. Canada’s vulnerability to increasing Sino-Russian presence in the Arctic is a failure to anticipate and prepare for the inevitable. As distasteful as Trump’s musings about the annexation of Canada may be, Canada has failed to do its part in the defence of the North American fortress and its own vulnerability.
In the long-term, past the presidency and over the horizon, resilience and resistance will be the requisite capabilities for the complex, unstable, unknowable, and unpredictable global order. Despite the MAGA braggadocio, America cannot go it alone. As Walter Russell Mead cautions, China, Russia, India, and others pursue economic and technological advance not to become more like the West but rather to pursue a deeper independence from the West and to pursue civilisational and political goals of their own. Going it alone is not an option for America.
A world founded on the principles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and rules established by institutions of international justice (International Court of Justice), the World Trade Organization, and the United Nations requires compromises and consensus. As Henry Kissinger is supposed to have remarked, “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” The benefits of any relationship with America should always be weighed—the benefits as well as costs in terms of vulnerability to coercion.
Middle powers have so far neglected to assert their own importance as essential and equal partners in the sustaining of American dominance. Neither America, nor any rule-based global order, can survive without a cohesive and assertive middle power coalition. Middle powers collectively are the counterbalance to MAGA expansionism.
Going it alone will not strengthen America. America needs middle power alliances. But middle powers must do their share, and do more, and more quickly, to respond to emergent challenges while anticipating and building resilience and capacity for responding to unexpected shifts in American geo-politics.
The burden for upholding the torch of a rules-based global order now falls to middle powers. Middle powers must speak collectively for their own interest, establish middle power alliances against American expansionism, and recommit to the rules. A cohesive, stronger middle power coalition is the catalyst for balancing American uncertainty and strengthening Western security.
Anil Anand is an independent Canadian policy researcher and author with extensive experience in law enforcement, security, and social justice.
This article is published under a Creative Commons Licence and may be republished with attribution.