The past week can be seen as something of a small success for Putin. Sanctions gaps are opening, inflation in the West is increasing, and Donald Trump’s prospects for the Presidency remain challenging for Biden.

It is what they like to call the summer season in London when visitors pour in from across the world – often in inclement weather – paying premium prices for ticket events ranging from the horse racing at the Derby and Royal Ascot, lawn tennis at Wimbledon, cricket at Lords and The Oval, to rowing at the Henley Royal Regatta. This year, the big “downer” in London was the surge in prices combined with a decline in service, following the post-Brexit departure of so many East Europeans from key jobs. A double room with breakfast at the Royal Over-Seas League, which cost £180 in March, had risen to over £300 last week. Meeting a friend from Melbourne in the bar, we were shocked to have to pay £10 for soft drinks.

Meanwhile, the sombre mood in Westminster has sullied the usual atmosphere of summer conviviality. The Tory government is twitchy, facing three by-elections this week and almost certain to lose at least one – the seat formerly held by ex-prime minister Boris Johnson; some pundits predict that all three seats could be lost.

My friend, who is particularly well-informed on international affairs, was keen to know if the Tories’ troubles are as serious as has been reported in the Australian media. “Worse,” I said, “the English are facing these problems because they are still floundering in the mess created by Brexit, with many people still supporting the policies spun to them by Johnson. Neither the Scots, the Irish or the Welsh supported Brexit, so Britain is deeply divided as well as struggling to contain inflation. Labour is well ahead at the polls but seemingly devoid of strategies to capture the imagination and support of voters. In these circumstances, most overseas investors are giving Britain a wide berth.”

Over the week, the three-day NATO summit in Vilnius, capital of Lithuania and once a part of the Soviet empire, was attended by Australia’s prime minister Anthony Albanese. A one-to-one meeting between US president Joe Biden and British prime minister Rishi Sunak had led press to comment about a revival of the “special relationship.” Although NATO leaders agreed on a communiqué that reflected their unanimous support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression, they failed to set out a clear path for Ukraine’s NATO membership; the compromise was merely to say that President Volodymyr Zelensky will receive a formal invitation to join when existing NATO members agree to the terms and conditions, a process that could take some time, and is likely to give Vladimir Putin fresh impetus to continue the war.

President Putin is likely counting on Donald Trump to beat Biden in next year’s US presidential election and, subsequently, to end America’s support for Ukraine. In Europe, an official European Union poll showed strong financial support for Kyiv among the stronger EU members, but enthusiasm for continued support for Ukraine was marginal, even tepid, in seven countries – Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, and Slovakia. No leader was as publicly crass as Britain’s defence secretary George Wallace whose response to Zelensky’s requests for more defence help was, “We’re not Amazon,” a remark immediately disowned by Sunak. Wallace resigned soon after, subsequently making the extravagant forecast that the UK will be involved in three major conflicts within ten years, including a war with Russia.

The question of what will  happen if NATO continues to sit and watch while the Ukrainian forces and people bear the brunt of front-line battle remains unanswered, yet stark. Although Putin has repeatedly said his ambition is to rebuild the Soviet Russian empire and push NATO back from its existing frontiers, which now include the long border between Russia and Finland, NATO’s newest member. It seems vital that NATO is given top priority to help resolve the Ukraine issue. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Norwegian secretary-general, has extended his contract; during the time he remains, he needs to define a clear road map for Ukraine membership, and make it happen.

Mark Sidwell, a former national security adviser to the UK government and geopolitical adviser to Rothschild and Co., this week wrote in the Financial Times, “Today’s threat is Putin’s Russia. Putin will already be comforted by the plans of some US Republicans to restrict support to Ukraine and, presumably, hopes that the 2024 election will produce a president ready to concede land for peace. President Zelensky, however, will not cede Ukrainian territory after such a fierce struggle for national survival. And Putin’s disregard for the Minsk agreements between Russia and Ukraine, signed in September 2014, demonstrates that he would regard any ceasefire deal as just a tactical pause to regroup.”

It is clear that there is no time for NATO to relax following the Vilnius summit, he went on to continue. In his last year as secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg will have to  “secure three commitments for Ukraine: more weapons now to support this year’s counteroffensive; long-term support for developing the advanced capabilities to repel and thus deter future Russian aggression; and that guaranteed road map to NATO membership.”

Well said. But there are other things that the United States and Europe need to do. The most important is to tighten existing sanctions on Russia. Currently, Putin is finding ways round many of them, partly with the help of OPEC (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and also India. But every day Russian entrepreneurs are finding ways to avoid sanctions, and making a lot of money in the process.

There are many examples. One of the most audacious involves the motor trade, in which American and European businessmen are acting as willing accomplices. Middle-income Russians like American and European cars, but exporters like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Cadillac/Ford, and General Motors have shut down their showrooms and sales outlets in Russia. In recent months crafty German, Italian, and East European businessman have linked up with Russians to export second-hand vehicles to Russia along two major routes – one through northern Germany and Belarus and the other via Turkey and the Caucuses, the main trading point being Armenia. An investigation by the Financial Times uncovered a huge surge in that country’s gross national product, the result of inflows of millions of dollars from motor trades. Worryingly for the ultimate Russian buyers, many of the vehicles were written off in their countries of origin, but acquired, exported, and then restored at makeshift factories in Russia. There appears to be very little effort to control the trade, which has been aptly described as “a new silk road” to beat sanctions.

Colin Chapman FAIIA is a writer, broadcaster, public speaker, who specialises in geopolitics, international economics, and global media issues. He is a former president of AIIA NSW and was appointed a fellow of the AIIA in 2017. Colin is editor at large with Australian Outlook.

This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.