The energized voting base of Malaysia’s many political parties demonstrates a growing sophistication among voters of the needs of the country. Major voting issues include the state of the economy, job scarcity, and government corruption. 

On 12 August 2023, six states in Malaysia will conduct their respective state elections, including Penang, Kedah, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Terengganu, and Kelantan. At present, three of these states are under the governance of the National Alliance (Perikatan Nasional (PN)), while the remaining three are administered by the Alliance of Hope (Pakatan Harapan (PH)). The election commission has estimated a cost of around RM420 million to conduct these elections. This estimate brings into sharp relief the financial implications of democracy. The figure underscores the significance of these state elections, not just politically but economically as well.

Understanding the “Green Wave”

The 15th General Election (GE15) held in November 2022 saw a surge in participation from Malay voters who were responding to a series of socio-political issues of immediate concern. This revival of political activism is expected to carry through into the upcoming state elections, painting a picture of a Malaysian public more politically engaged than ever before. However, the optimism that comes with increased engagement should be tempered with the reality of existing concerns. The cost of living in Malaysia continues to rise, even as the value of the Malaysian Ringgit depreciates against the US dollar. Meanwhile, job scarcity, particularly for youth, adds another challenge for everyday Malaysians, particularly when they are coupled with a perceived lack of effort in curbing corruption within the government.

Some progressive and liberal political parties, such as DAP (Democratic Action Party), have termed this resurgence a “Green Wave,” viewing it as a potential warning sign of the expanding influence of Political Islam, or in their more extreme interpretations, the emergence of “Islamic Fascism.” The Green Wave is a term used by Lim Kit Siang to highlight and caution non-Malay voters about the increasing influence and potential implications of Party Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), a party known for advocating strong Islamic principles, in the Malaysian political landscape. However, the Green Wave, interestingly, has developed as a call for the broader rejection of kleptocratic governments, seen as inefficient and unable to deal with cost of living issues under inflation.

In the recent General Election, PAS made inroads in non-traditional constituencies underscoring a significant shift in the political landscape, with a surge in support from diverse communities – Malays, Indians, and Chinese alike – who are collectively rallying for efficient and accountable governance. PAS and BERSATU (The Malaysian United Indigenous Party) share a unique compatibility in their political ideologies. Known as a stalwart of the east coast, and deeply rooted in the Malay heartland, PAS is renowned for its focus on Islamic principles and governance. BERSATU, though it also resonates with Malay voters, primarily positions itself as a party for ethnic Malays, focusing on their socio-political and economic interests. This blend of religious and ethnic focus within the alliance has the potential to create a harmonised base of support in the Malaysian political landscape.

The National Alliance and the Alliance of Hope

The National Alliance (Perikatan Nasional (PN)) faces a pressing challenge tied to the controversial 3R issue (Race, Religion, and Royalty). On 18 July, Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor, Chief Minister of Kedah and also the election director for PN, was brought to court over charges linked to controversial remarks involving the sensitive 3Rs. He is alleged to have made seditious comments about the Sultan of Selangor, Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah, and to have shown disrespect towards the Chief Minister of Selangor, Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari. His court appearance and the subsequent charges have cast a shadow over PN’s electoral campaign and shifted public focus from crucial campaign issues to this contentious matter.

In this context, PN must address a prevailing perception that it is entrenched in a culture war and in identity politics. This perception, to be sure, risks alienating urban and non-Malay voters. If PN cannot successfully demonstrate a commitment to broader, more inclusive policies, it may struggle to secure votes from these demographic groups. As such, the upcoming elections will be a crucial test of PN’s ability to appeal beyond its traditional voter base and connect with a more diverse electorate.

Pakatan Harapan (PH), the opposing Alliance of Hope, are a significant political coalition in Malaysia with a distinctive position in the nation’s multifaceted political landscape. Known for its broad-based support from diverse ethnic groups, PH’s current strength lies predominantly in its robust backing from the non-Malay community. As this suggests, the Malay vote remains a challenge for the coalition, highlighting a key area of vulnerability.

The proportion of non-Malay support for PH has been a characteristic feature of its political journey. The coalition has been able to appeal to the non-Malay community due to its inclusive, multi-ethnic political narrative, commitment to social justice, and emphasis on good governance. This enduring non-Malay support is not expected to waver as the upcoming State Elections approach, providing PH with a significant political advantage.

Political trajectories

Malaysia currently stands at a pivotal point, the outcome of which will set the course for the country’s political future. The upcoming state elections are a crucial gauge of Malaysia’s political growth. Regardless of the election results, it is essential for Malays to maintain and nurture their spirit of federalism.

Voters in Malaysia have become increasingly savvy and well-informed, which leaves no room for political complacency. The groundswell of support for Pakatan Harapan in Penang and Selangor back in 2018 was a clear demonstration of this shift. While we can expect the voting patterns to change, whether these changes will result in a shift of power remains an open question.

Political restructuring, a reality that Malaysia is currently experiencing at both the state and federal levels, is a complex process that requires deep understanding and a broader perspective. But at its heart, politics is about service delivery. The party that can convince the voters of their ability to deliver effective governance will be the one to clinch victory.

Presently, Malaysia finds itself navigating through a series of unprecedented crises. Although these challenges may seem daunting, they also represent the culmination of a political maturation process that has been unfolding since 1998. This upcoming state election, therefore, is not just a contest for power but a reflection of the nation’s political evolution and the increasing sophistication of Malaysian voters.

Mohd Amirul Asraf Bin Othman is a Ph.D student in Political Science and International Relations at the Australian National University. His academic interests are diverse and encompass areas such as Middle East Security Studies, Regionalism, Terrorism, and Extremism, as well as the broader fields of Political Science and International Relations in the Middle East context. You can find him on social media here.    

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