As the general elections in India were underway from April to June 2024, the country was also grappling with severe heatwaves, highlighting the critical need for effective climate policies. As the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases, India’s climate strategy is at a critical juncture, balancing ambitious international commitments and domestic imperatives.

India has made significant commitments and has taken concrete actions to address climate change through international agreements and domestic policies. It is a signatory to the Paris Agreement and has submitted its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These targets under the NDCs include: reducing the emission intensity of its GDP by 33-35 percent below 2005 levels by 2030; achieving about 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030; and creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of C02 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

At COP26, India signalled an enhancement of its Paris Agreement commitments by introducing five key elements known as “Panchamrit.” These targets include increasing non-fossil fuel capacity to 500 GW and targeting 50 percent of energy needs by renewable sources. Further, India has also set a clear timeline for achieving net zero emissions by 2070. Additionally, India has taken an active participation and leadership role by being a founder member of the International Solar Alliance, and at the G20 meeting in 2023, India’s Global Biofuel Alliance sought to promote sustainable biofuel usage.

In domestic policies, India has also implemented its National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), which outlines eight national missions to address climate change mitigation and adaptation. These policies include reducing single-use plastics, adopting electric vehicles, promoting renewable energy sources, and promoting sustainable agriculture.

Assessment of India’s policy

India’s climate policy has significantly transformed in recent years, showcasing remarkable progress and persistent challenges. On the positive side, the country has shown impressive strides in emissions reduction intensity and renewable energy deployment and is set to achieve Paris NDCs well ahead of time. According to a 2022 response by the Indian government to the parliament, India has already achieved an additional carbon sink of 1.97 billion tonnes compared to the base year 2005. The country’s ranking in the climate performance index has improved from 31 in 2014 to seventh in 2024, reflecting its growing commitment to climate action.

Despite these advancements, critical challenges persist, particularly around the nation’s heavy reliance on coal. Coal remains the primary source of power generation, and in 2023, it accounted for nearly 77 percent of total energy generation, underscoring India’s enduring dependence on coal. The country’s coal production increased significantly to 893 million tonnes in 2022-2023, reflecting a 14 percent rise from the previous year. The surge is further highlighted by the government’s ambitious coal mining plans, which contradict the goal of reducing carbon emissions. As the demand continues to rise, the Indian government has indicated no plans to shut down any coal power plant before 2030. The approach starkly contrasts with India’s stated objectives under international climate commitments and raises concerns about the feasibility of achieving a net-zero target.

Another challenge is New Delhi’s less ambitious NDC targets. Although India is set to achieve them under the Paris pledge, many have argued that the targets need to be more ambitious. The climate Action tracker ranks India’s target of achieving 50 percent non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 as “highly insufficient,” indicating that the country is already on track to exceed the target under current policies. Furthermore, the updated NDCs India adopted in 2022 lack a detailed roadmap and sector-specific targets.

Meanwhile, India has committed to increasing the size of its land sink by 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030, but the pace has been rather slow. In the six years since 2015, the amount of carbon sinking in India increased by 703 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. At this rate, achieving 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent remains unlikely. Understandably, the Indian government did not update its commitments on carbon sinks in 2022, nor in response to the Paris updated NDCs. Additionally, India did not sign the COP26 forest declaration, nor Glasgow’s forest and land use declaration, which aims to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030.

Transparency in government reports is another major issue concerning forest cover in India. India’s Forest Survey reports 2021 showed an increase of 0.28 percent in forest and tree cover combined, compared with the 2019 report. However, there are noted discrepancies, and the Indian government’s data on forest cover has been criticised for some years due to lack of transparency. Experts from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change raised doubts about India’s claims that forest cover has been increasing steadily over the years. According to Global Forest Watch, which tracks forest cover via satellite imagery, from 2001 to 2023, India lost 2.33 million hectares of tree cover, equivalent to a six percent decrease in tree cover since 2000.

Finally, there is a lack of political will. While climate change consciousness continues to grow in India, it has yet to become a political issue. In the recent elections, climate change was side-lined as an issue, while even multiple reports suggested how India was gripping under the worst recorded heatwaves, causing concerns about low voting. The Bhartiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress very specifically did not engage the issue. This omission reflects how, in the Indian political system, short-term economic gains are still prioritised over long-term environmental sustainability.

In conclusion, India stands at a critical juncture in its climate policy trajectory, grappling with the complex challenges of aligning its economic development with ambitious climate goals. The continued reliance on coal, coupled with opaque government data and concerns raised by numerous exports, underscores the urgency for a more comprehensive and transparent climate framework.

India needs a comprehensive climate law to integrate climate considerations into governance; empower state governments; and ensure a just transition. A clearly defined phase-out plan for coal, which outlines stages of peaking and decline, is essential for a successful transition. Strengthening climate action targets, particularly in light of the upcoming changes to NDCs in 2025, presents a significant opportunity for India.

Radhey Wadhwa is a Ph.D. Candidate at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He holds a Master in International Relations from Jawaharlal Nehru University as well. You can find him on Twitter here and on LinkedIn here.

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