It took Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to illustrate the strategic mistake of Russian gas dependence in the EU. Forced to reevaluate its energy strategy, the EU has shown that it can be resilient and also that renewables can work.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine precipitated a major change-up in the EU’s energy security strategy. Announced in March 2022, the EU-US Gas Deal illustrates these changes, but they have also highlighted a broader re-alignment with Western allies such as the United States and Norway. The EU has also had to consider climate targets and the rollout of renewable energies with these changes. Looking inwards, the EU has sought to increase the production of renewable energies among member states. Despite these ongoing and in some ways drastic innovations in energy production, supply, and consumption, the final product is still unclear.

An ongoing issue for European energy security has been dependency on Russian gas, which accounted for 44 percent of the EU’s total gas consumption before March 2022. The reliance on exports from one country for nearly half of the EU’s gas supply caused many nervous governments to address unprecedented energy insecurity considerations as sanctions were imposed on Russian energy companies.

In combatting this new reality, the EU has prioritised diversifying energy supplies with a focus on friendly countries. Over one year into the war, the discussion about how to diversify energy dependencies and by how much has underscored a growing divide among observers. One suggestion has been to replace Russian gas with energy from a trustworthy supplier. Put differently, the EU, this argument makes clear, should not replace its volatile Russian partner with another unpredictable actor. Rather the EU should engage with actors that it can trust to behave in accordance with international law. Others believe there is an opportunity for the EU to fast-track its rollout of renewable energies.

This could mean that the bloc would become a leader in renewable energies and infrastructure while meeting the targets outlined in the European Green Deal ahead of schedule. The EU’s strategy to pivot its energy dependencies away from unreliable suppliers also extends to its renewable developments. Innovations like the offshore wind farms in the North Sea showcase the creative ways that the EU can engage in and, with member support, champion developments in renewable infrastructure and energy production. Projects like the wind farms in Gippsland in Australia have taken inspiration from the artificial reefs attached to North Sea wind turbines. Already, the influence of the EU energy security strategy has shown its international reach.

General opinions on European energy security usually land critics in one of two camps; independence or interdependence. An entirely independent EU energy strategy would see the bloc rely solely on its member states for the production and supply of all energy needs. By contrast, an interdependent system would involve a hyper-diversification of energy supply from actors outside of the EU. Instead of relying on one major non-EU actor, the bloc would import different types of energy from multiple non-EU actors. In reality, EU energy security strategy should be a combination of both schools of thought.

Under such a framework, the EU could lean towards its North American and Norwegian allies to address immediate energy concerns and satisfy European demands for gas while also shifting its focus on renewables and develop its intra-EU energy market. In some ways, this would be the ultimate diversification.

In 2021, fossil fuels accounted for 37 percent of the EU’s energy consumption. Renewables occupied 37 percent of supply and nuclear 26 percent. Current trends show that renewable energy capabilities are on the rise with solar producing 27 percent more power compared to 2019. In the same year, wind and solar power (combined 547 TWh) generated more energy than gas (524 TWh). With this increased capability, it is almost entirely within the EU’s capacity to fast-track their shift to renewable energies.

Alongside this transition, the EU-US Gas Deal is an example of smaller, diverse contributions to the EU’s gas supply. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, clarified in a statement to the press that relations with new gas suppliers like the United States will not deter the EU from its climate goals. Also, the EU is still engaging with non-allied supplier-states such as Algeria, suggesting that their renewed diversification strategy may not be exclusive to EU member states or NATO allies.

However, aligning energy needs with political partnerships may strengthen the EU’s energy security as states like Norway – that share the same values and rules-based order as the EU – are less likely to disobey international law. It is essential that the EU partners with energy suppliers that will act in line with EU values if the bloc wants to strengthen its energy security strategy.

As the EU reevaluates its energy security and diversification plans, the EU-US Gas Deal announced to the world that while the EU will remain interdependent, this will exist within new Trans-Atlantic parameters and alongside a strengthened intra-EU renewable energy market.

Leilani Richmond is a Bachelor of International Studies Graduate where she majored in Global Security. During her undergraduate degree, Leilani was President of the International Studies Association. She currently works with the Australian Fulbright Alumni Association as their Social Media Coordinator.

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