Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is once again proposing the dissolution of the National Electoral Institute. Mass protests in Mexico City have called the constitutional reform a threat to democracy.

On 5 February this year, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced a controversial package of reforms – 18 constitutional reforms and two legal – which he intends to pass before his term ends in October. The changes are wide-ranging, and include a plan to increase the minimum wage, prohibit animal abuse, reduce the size of the congress, and raise pensions as a percentage of salary.

The centre-left populist leader is looking to secure his legacy. While many of the policies have been criticised by commentators, the most controversial of all is the plan to restructure the National Electoral Institute (El Instituto Nacional Electoral; INE). The INE is an autonomous, non-partisan body which oversees elections in Mexico. The Institute was established in 1990 as Mexico moved to a democratic model, following a 71-year period of one-party rule. As instructed in the constitution, the INE organises democratic elections at the local, state, and federal levels. The body issues rulings and fines where breaches are made against campaign laws, and so has acted as a tool of transparency and legality for Mexican democracy for over three decades.

Under the new policy, the INE would become the “National Institute of Elections and Consultations.” This new structure would massively reduce the number of election counsellors and would require electoral judges to be appointed by popular vote. The president says this reform would save taxpayers US$150 million a year, and would remove the corruption of the current body which he claims is responsible for establishing “an anti-democracy with electoral fraud.” In February, he declared his reforms would “redirect public life along the path of liberty, justice and democracy.”

This is not the first time that López Obrador has expressed hostility towards the INE. In the aftermath of his failed presidential bids in 2006 and 2012, López Obrador accused the INE of working against him and of committing electoral fraud. The president’s party, Morena, has also been the subject of penalties from the INE, and in 2018 and 2021, it was sanctioned for a lack of financial transparency from its candidates.

Since his election in 2018, López Obrador has been pushing to reduce the power of the INE. He first officially proposed the dissolution of the body in 2022. This sparked mass protests across Mexico in November 2022 and did not receive the necessary congressional support. The president then proposed a “Plan-B” bill that was passed by Mexico’s Senate in early 2023. It cut the INE’s budget, staff, and offices across Mexico, and limited the body’s ability to sanction candidates who violate campaign laws.

Now in 2024, President López Obrador is looking to successfully implement Plan-A. During his policy announcement in February, the president said he would seek to correct policies made in the “neo-liberal period” which were “contrary to the public interest.”

However, critics of the reforms see the overhaul of the INE as a threat to the nation’s democracy. On 18 February, thousands of protesters took to the streets of Mexico City to support the INE and to “march for democracy.” While the local government said 90,000 people attended the rally, organisers put the figure closer to 700,000. The crowd was a sea of pink, with protesters wearing the INE’s colour in solidarity with the institute.

At the protest, members of the public joined the political opposition in accusing the president of attempting to weaken the electoral process. Critics argue that with a smaller budget and fewer employees, the new institute would have fewer resources to commit to election organisation and oversight. This is pertinent as the next presidential elections will be held in June of this year.

Furthermore, the new system of electing judges would make the body more political and partisan. Former head of the INE, Lorenzo Cordova, sees the reforms as part of a wider assault on institutional independence in the country, declaring that the “authorities are seeking to eliminate (autonomous institutions), to subordinate them or take them over.”

For many critics, the assault on the INE has come to symbolise a “step backwards toward [Mexico’s] authoritarian past.” Being one of the foremost democratic institutions in Mexico, the health of INE is symbolic of the health of the overall system. This policy has therefore become a flashpoint for growing discontent over the president’s “authoritarian impulses.” Attacking the INE is just one of the many examples of democratic erosion that have occurred during López Obrador’s term in office. Over the past six years, the president has reduced institutional capacity, attempted to reduce the size of the national Congress, harassed journalists and opponents, been accused of corruption, and meddled in the judiciary. During this time, Mexico has dropped from 92nd to 116th (out of 142) in the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index.

Despite the outcry over INE reform, the president remains extremely popular. His focus on helping the poor and working classes (over the elites) has led to strong approval ratings, some as high as 69 percent.

When looking at the reform package as a whole, it is a political masterstroke that that will surely excite his base. The package combines social reforms like raising the minimum wage, with attacks on “elite institutions,” which together will cause trouble for his opponents. Three months out from the election, this large policy announcement has flooded the national discourse and dominated the news cycle. This puts the opposition on the backfoot, forcing them to play defence rather than define their own agenda.

Most importantly, the president is using the reforms to forge his legacy and sculpt the agenda of the next administration. López Obrador admitted that he is unlikely to pass many of these reforms before the end of his term, needing a two-thirds majority in Congress, for example, which he currently lacks.

Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, López Obrador’s protégé, is currently favoured to win the presidential election (she is currently leading by 32 percent in the polls.) By announcing a slew of policies at the beginning of Sheinbaum’s campaign, López Obrador is shaping her political agenda before she even enters office. Should Sheinbaum win a large congressional majority in June, Obrador will recommend that she push on with his reforms – including plans to dissolve the INE.

Ultimately, the election will be a test for Mexican democracy. Should Sheinbaum win big on election night, the Morena party will forge ahead with its “transformative” policy. This will likely spell doom for the INE, and the process of democratic erosion is likely to continue. It will be interesting to see whether the opposition, both public and political, will have any success in stopping encroaching authoritarianism going forward.

Xanthe Murrell is a freelance writer, who is interested in foreign affairs and political commentary. She is a graduate of the Australian National University, with a Double Bachelor’s Degree of International Relations and Arts. She specialised within this degree in French, Spanish, and Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies.

This article is published under a Creative Commons Licence and may be republished with attribution.