Climate change poses a significant threat to Australia’s national security. Major concerns include damage to critical infrastructure, reduced capacities of the armed forces, regional political instability, and climate insecurity among some key allies.  

Climate change certainly poses serious challenges to Australia. The recently released State of the Climate report, for instance, concludes that Australia’s climate has changed significantly in recent years. Heat waves, bushfire occurrence, drought and flood events, and sea levels are all on the rise. These developments pose significant challenges to a country with an already hot and dry climate, significant flood and fire risks, and many major settlements being located close to the coast. 

There can be little doubt that climate change poses a serious risk to Australia’s people and economy. But does it also threaten national security? Several influential policy makers have recently expressed such concerns. The 2023 Defence Strategic Review, for instance, clearly states: “Climate change is a now a national security issue.” Likewise, the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group, a body of eminent security policy professionals, argues that “climate disruption now presents the greatest, and potentially existential, threat to society and human security in Australia.” 

A recent study systematically collected scientific evidence on climate change implications on Australia’s national security and largely confirms these concerns. 

Threats to critical infrastructure 

To start with, climate change poses significant challenges to Australia’s critical infrastructure. By 2050, 120 ports, five power stations, over 250 police, fire, and ambulance stations, and 75 hospitals will be severely threatened by rising sea levels. Many roads and railway lines are either located close to the coast as well, or they are susceptible to extreme weather events in remote regions. Major floods in Southern Australia in 2022, for example, caused food shortages in Western Australia. Over the next three decades, some regions will further experience a 30 percent decline in wheat yields due to extreme weather events. Power lines are also at risk from more severe storms and more frequent wildfires, which poses a threat to energy security. 

Climate change and the Australian Defence Force 

This has ripple effects on one of the country’s major national security institutions: the Australian Defence Force (ADF). The ADF strongly relies on civilian electricity, water, and transportation infrastructure. For instance, the Tanami Road, which is considered crucial in case of regional military conflict, remains highly vulnerable to extreme climate events like heatwaves and floods. In addition, many ADF bases are located along the coast. Extremely high temperatures, particularly in northern Australia, pose additional challenges for the maintenance of vehicles and equipment as well as for outdoor training.  

Domestically, the ADF is a major responder to climate-related disasters. The ADF also plays a crucial role in providing disaster relief in the Asia-Pacific region. With more storms and floods hitting Australia and its neighbours in a climate-changed world—and even as geopolitical tensions in the region expand—the capacities of the ADF could also be stretched thin due increasing disaster relief tasks. 

Climate insecurity among regional and global partners 

Climate change has the potential to increase political instability in the Indo-Pacific region. Research has identified several factors that make a country susceptible to climate-related unrest, including pre-existing politics tensions, high vulnerability to extreme weather events, and lower levels of economic development. These factors are widespread in countries like India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the Solomon Islands, among others. Extremist groups could utilise climate-induced hardships and state fragility in these countries to further their agendas, while anti-government protests and riots are also more likely to occur. 

In line with that, several key regional allies of Australia are very likely to feel climate impacts on national security in the coming years. These will be very similar to the challenges Australia is facing, including more pressure on critical civilian and military infrastructure, food and water insecurity, and more frequent disasters, but also rising political tensions. Research suggests that several countries with which Australia has (Comprehensive) Strategic Partnerships are highly climate insecure, including Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, and Vietnam. 

Some risks are overstated 

However, when assessing evidence on climate change and Australia’s national security, the study also finds that some risks are overstated. First, many key allies of Australia beyond its immediate region are highly industrialised economies with sufficient capacities to deal with climate change. These include both AUKUS partners (the USA and the UK), Quad ally Japan, and core strategic partner New Zealand. Second, climate change is unlikely to cause international wars. Historic evidence suggests that states are almost always capable of resolving environment-related tensions without resorting to force.  

Third, climate change will not lead to mass migration to Australia. Evidence shows that most migration related to climate disasters and environmental stress occurs over short distances, either to a neighbouring area in the same country or across a nearby international border. Those most in need of migration, such as small-scale farmers and poor coastal dwellers, first try to deal with climate change in situ before moving elsewhere. They also frequently lack the funds to afford long-distance migration (both legally and illegally), especially to an island country with well-secured borders. 

Tackling symptoms and root causes 

While some risks are overstated in public debates, climate change is a clear and emerging threat to Australia’s national security. Acknowledging this, Australia should undertake measures to prepare for the inevitable impacts of climate change. Reasonable measures in this context include strengthening critical infrastructure, increasing the capacity to deal with disasters (including investments into civilian response capacities), and supporting key international partners in building resilience to climate change.  

However, these are mostly short- and medium-term responses that tackle the symptoms of climate change. To achieve climate security in the long-term, Australia must conduct measures to mitigate climate change, both by supporting ambitious international climate policies and by rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically. With its strong partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region, its rich deposits of minerals crucial for green energies, and its high solar and wind power potential, Australia is in an excellent position to champion such climate initiatives.  

Dr Tobias Ide is Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at Murdoch University in Perth. Holding PhDs in Political Science and Earth Sciences, he has conducted extensive research and consultancy on the intersection of climate change and environmental politics with peace, conflict, and security. You can find more information on his work here and here. 

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