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Breaking the Chain: Why Assad’s Fall Leaves Iran Scrambling

12 Dec 2024
By Mohd Amirul Asraf Bin Othman
The fall of the House of Assad. Source: FMT, https://t.ly/7vquc

Assad’s fall has dismantled Iran’s Axis of Resistance, severing critical ties to Hezbollah and undermining Tehran’s regional ambitions. Can Iran adapt to a redefined Middle East where its influence is no longer assured? 

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime represents a seismic shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, placing Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” under unprecedented strain. While it is premature to dismiss Iran’s influence entirely, the loss of its most crucial Arab ally has delivered a severe blow to Tehran’s strategic ambitions. This network of allies and proxies, cultivated over decades to counterbalance the influence of the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, now faces profound challenges as its geographic and political foundations unravel. 

Ali Akbar Velayati, a key adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, famously referred to Syria as the “golden ring of the resistance chain.” Syria’s strategic importance to Iran lay in its role as a logistical hub, providing a direct land corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This lifeline enabled the transfer of weapons, supplies, and logistical support, allowing Hezbollah to become a formidable military presence on Israel’s northern border. The fall of Assad severs this vital link, fracturing the Axis of Resistance and severely curtailing Iran’s regional influence. 

A Fractured Axis of Resistance 

Without Syrian logistical support, Hezbollah faces operational isolation, its land supply routes jeopardised. Israeli military campaigns, including strikes targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure, have further diminished the group’s capacity to act as Iran’s primary deterrent against Israel. Simultaneously, Hamas’s capabilities have been undermined following the devastating Israeli response to its 7 October 2023 attack, while the Houthis in Yemen face increasing operational constraints. This fragmentation leaves Tehran struggling to maintain its regional ambitions, as the Axis of Resistance, long touted as a symbol of Iranian strength, appears increasingly vulnerable. 

Regionally, Assad’s fall has emboldened Iran’s adversaries. Sunni insurgent groups and regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia and Turkiye are capitalising on the power vacuum, while Israel has celebrated Assad’s fall as a triumph that dismantles a critical node in Iran’s resistance network. For Tehran, these developments underscore its waning influence in the Arab world and the urgent need to recalibrate its regional strategy. 

Challenges of Post-Assad Syria 

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Muhammed al-Julani, played a pivotal role in preparing for Assad’s downfall. The group evolved from its origins as an offshoot of the al-Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra) and a former al-Qaeda affiliate into a more pragmatic and locally focused organisation. Under Julani’s leadership, HTS strategically professionalised its ranks, establishing military academies and governance structures well in advance of its offensive. These efforts allowed the group to build a more conventional military force and administrative apparatus, ensuring its readiness to challenge Assad’s regime effectively. This transformation positioned HTS as the most organised and cohesive faction within Syria, ultimately leading the offensive that toppled the Assad regime. 

HTS’s rise complicates Iran’s efforts to secure influence in post-Assad Syria. Despite distancing itself from al-Qaeda, HTS’s history and leadership remain contentious. Julani’s pragmatic shift has focused on local governance and military cohesion, but questions persist about whether HTS will govern Syria directly, lead a coalition, or seek international recognition. For the West, this presents a dilemma: supporting HTS risks legitimising a group with extremist roots, while opposing it could allow Turkiye-backed groups like the Syrian National Army to dominate. 

Meanwhile, the collapse of Assad’s regime has placed Iran and Russia in full damage-control mode. Both nations invested billions of dollars and extensive military resources over the past 14 years to sustain Assad. Thousands of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps fighters and other militias deployed in Syria under the banner of defending Shia shrines, leaving their families questioning the sacrifices made for a now-collapsed regime. Russia, distracted by the war in Ukraine, now faces waning influence in Syria, leaving both allies grappling with diminished capacities in the Syrian theatre. 

The dynamics of Syria’s collapse also highlight the multifaceted role of other rebel groups. While HTS has emerged as the most organised faction, other groups, including the Turkish-backed SNA and local factions in southern Syria, have played significant roles in the conflict. This fragmented opposition underscores the complexity of Syria’s post-Assad future, where no single group can govern without addressing the longstanding grievances of various communities that have suffered under both Assad’s regime and the broader conflict. The challenge of forming an inclusive government that accounts for these diverse voices remains paramount to ensuring any semblance of stability. 

Iran’s Strategic Dilemmas 

Tehran’s predicament is further compounded by increasing international isolation, including the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025, signalling renewed sanctions and hostility toward the country. The disruption of the Axis of Resistance coincides with Tehran’s diminishing deterrence capabilities and overstretch in other conflicts, forcing Iran to navigate an increasingly constrained regional environment. In response, Iran appears to be doubling down on its nuclear program. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran’s capacity to produce uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, near weapons-grade, has seen a dramatic increase, with monthly production expected to rise significantly from the previous five to seven kilograms. This growing stockpile serves as both a means of deterrence and a bargaining chip in future diplomatic engagements, reflecting Tehran’s strategy to recalibrate its influence amid mounting regional and international challenges. 

Conclusion

The fall of Assad marks a historic turning point for Iran, exposing the fragility of its decades-long strategy to sustain regional hegemony. The dismantling of the Axis of Resistance undermines Tehran’s ability to project power across the Middle East, forcing it to rely on asymmetric tactics and nuclear posturing to maintain relevance. While Iran’s pragmatic outreach to Syria’s new leadership reflects an effort to salvage its position, the broader regional shifts point to a more challenging path ahead. 

This moment of profound vulnerability invites greater scrutiny from Iran’s adversaries, who are poised to exploit its weakened position to reshape the Middle Eastern strategic landscape. The departure of Assad’s regime is not merely a setback for Tehran but a definitive reordering of the regional power, compelling Iran to adapt to a reality where its influence is no longer assured. 

Mohd Amirul Asraf Bin Othman is a Ph.D student in Political Science and International Relations at the Australian National University. His academic interests are diverse and encompass areas such as Middle East Security Studies, Regionalism, Terrorism, and Extremism, as well as the broader fields of Political Science and International Relations in the Middle East context. You can find him on social media here.     

This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.