Donald Trump is an endlessly fascinating political figure for Australians, not just because of the experience of his 2017-2021 presidency, but because of his ongoing role in US politics and the very real possibility that he will return as president in 2025. Bruce Wolpe addresses this situation in a very engaging book that provides important insights into both Trump I and the possibility of Trump II from an Australian perspective. 

Wolpe is very well placed to undertake this task. He grew up in the US (mainly Washington DC) but has also lived in Australia for some decades. He makes his political perspective clear: moderate Democrat in the US and mainstream Labor in Australia. He has extensive experience in the media, writing with a journalistic style but with depth of analysis. 

Throughout the book there is an emphasis on the impact of Trump I on Australia, with attention also to the likely impact of Trump II. Wolpe provides advice as to how Australia should protect itself from the possibility of Trump II. Part I is headed “Trump and Australia’s Foreign Policy,” covering Trump’s America First approach in foreign policy, with reference to China, AUKUS (likely to survive Trump II according to Wolpe) and North Korea (spectacle diplomacy). In the event of Trump II, Australia need not abandon the US alliance but should be more assertive about pursuing its own independent interests. Assuming Anthony Albanese is still prime minister at the beginning of Trump II, there is likely to be “bad chemistry” with Trump. 

Part II on “Trump and Australia’s Domestic Policy” highlights the impact of Trump on economic and climate issues for Australia. Trump’s protectionist policies have a negative impact on the freer international trading environment favoured by Australia. US withdrawal from policies aiming to combat climate change adversely affects Australia, as well as the rest of the world. On trade Australia should try to strike as many bilateral and multilateral trade agreements as it can. In relation to the Federal Reserve in the US, Trump II is likely to try stacking the board with a view to entrenching low interest rates, leading to a negative impact on inflation and a flow on to countries such as Australia.  

Part III is about Trump’s impact on democracy in the US, with comparisons to Australia. Wolpe shows how Trump has undermined US democracy by not accepting the “rules of the game,” highlighted most obviously by the insurrection of 6 January 2021, but manifested in other ways such as the “stacking” of the US Supreme Court during his presidency. There are useful chapters on the culture wars and the role of race, although in the light of the failed Voice referendum the author is a bit too sanguine about Australia implementing the Uluru Statement from the Heart in full. A chapter on Ron DeSantis (governor of Florida) is a reminder that Trump is not the only Trumpist. While conservative politicians in Australia, Scott Morrison in particular, were able to connect with Trump, they are not Trumpist. The main exception is One Nation, with its limited parliamentary representation, overlapping with the populism represented on the right of the Coalition parties. 

Part IV discusses what Australia needs to safeguard its own democracy. Australia has certain features as part of its political system that put it in a better position than the US: compulsory voting (actually, submitting a ballot paper, whether or not it is a formal vote), the Westminster system of responsible government (making the executive accountable to the lower house), and appointments to the High Court under a fair and non-partisan process. Regulation of social media and campaign finance would enhance Australian democracy. 

This book is a prescient warning to Australia to think long and hard about Trump II – and to prepare for this possibility. In the past, Australian governments have related well to US administrations headed by moderate Democrats or mainstream Republicans. A transactional approach worked with Trump I. Would this still be the case for Trump II? Wolpe suggests that it could up to a point, but Trump is likely to drive a harder bargain on AUKUS (echoing the obstacles currently being encountered in Congress). US policies in the Asia-Pacific, especially in relation to China, are likely to be modified rather than overturned. US support for Ukraine would be problematic under Trump II, leaving the issue as one primarily for the European countries (Australia only being a minor factor). As highlighted by the author, Australia needs to be prepared for the economic impact. 

However there is also an existential question (as posed in Part V and taken up by Norman Ornstein in his essay at the end of the book, warning Australia against going down the US path). How closely would Australia want to work with the US under Trump II, given that the election of Trump would signal a move towards illiberal democracy (some would say fascism)? The predictions are that Trump would appoint super-loyalists to key positions in his administration and undermine the judicial system by limiting the independence of the Department of Justice and the FBI, ignoring court orders and rulings by Congress. Would he invoke the Insurrection Act and try to use the armed forces for his ends (not mentioned in this book)? 

The answer might be that Australia could work with the US on a transactional basis under Trump II. Trump II would be a US version of Orbán’s Hungary rather than Nazi Germany. However Australia and the US would be taking very different political paths, and the political harmony that has mostly (but not always) prevailed between the two countries would be jeopardized. This situation would be more obvious with a Labor government, but perhaps less so with Australia under a Coalition government (especially one led by Peter Dutton). 

Australia would be well advised to follow the proposals advanced in this book, pursuing a more independent foreign policy, and taking steps to reinforce its own democratic system. 

It would be most helpful if this book had an index. 

Derek McDougall is a Professorial Fellow at the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne. 

This review article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.