The first Tuesday in November is election day in the United States. The handful of state and local offices contested this year may foreshadow next year’s midterm elections and the 2024 presidential race.

The focal point of election day was the Virginia gubernatorial race. Virginia has voted blue for the past four presidential elections, and Democrats have won every statewide race since 2009. Yet, in a major upset, Republican Glenn Youngkin was elected governor on a decidedly local platform. Where former governor Terry McAuliffe was hoping for the race to be a proxy referendum on the former president, Youngkin deliberately distanced himself from Trump and tapped into more tangible concerns: repealing taxes on groceries and gasoline, and what goes on inside the classroom. This strategy swayed enough right-leaning, Trump-loathing voters – the moderate Republicans and independent voters responsible for Joe Biden’s ten percentage point win in 2020 – for Youngkin to upset what was expected to be an easy victory for McAuliffe.

What Republicans appear to have learned from the Virginia race and successes elsewhere is that education and the economy present the greatest opportunity for attracting voters. Democrats should not dismiss this new information. Local issues directly affect constituents in a much more tangible way than the issues that drive the national agenda, such as foreign policy or overhauling the healthcare system. When times are good, voters will make decisions based on the changes they would like to see in everyday life.

American parents and children have already experienced months of remote learning. Schools around the country have gone through multiple cycles of closing as cases surge, opening as vaccine rates improve and case numbers fall, then closing again in response to the next surge. Even when schools remain open, whole classrooms or grade levels may be sent into isolation any time there is a confirmed case. While the disruption to students is clear, such closures are equally disruptive to working parents of children who are too young to stay home by themselves. It is no wonder, then, that moderate and right-leaning parents of school age children are increasingly likely to favour the sense of stability that comes with ending COVID-19-related school closures over the appeals to safety being plied by Democrats. The other point of contention in and out of the classroom is the surging discourse surrounding “critical race theory.” The term, originally used to describe a niche academic lens to examine how racism is embedded in society, has assumed a prominent position as a right-wing pejorative.

Around the country, historic wins for underrepresented groups featured across party lines. Republican Winsome Sears will be the first Black woman to hold statewide office in Virginia and the state’s first woman of colour to be lieutenant governor. Republican Jason Miyares will be Virginia’s first Cuban American attorney general. On the Democratic side, Michelle Wu will be the first woman and person of colour to be elected mayor of Boston. Alvin Bragg will become the first Black person to lead the Manhattan district attorney’s office, meaning that he will soon be in charge of the investigation into Trump’s family business. Ed Gainey will be the first Black mayor of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, a former leader in the steel manufacturing industry. Gainey was also the first candidate to defeat a sitting Pittsburgh mayor in a primary election in 90 years. Aftab Pureva will be the first Asian mayor of Cincinnati, Ohio. In Dearborn, Michigan, Abdullah Hammoud will be the first Arab American mayor in a city with a sizable Arab population.

Also of note, Governor Phil Murphy became the first Democrat in more than four decades to win a bid for reelection in New Jersey. Overall, Democrats fared exceptionally well in mayoral races. However, it’s clear that solidarity within the party is tenuous. Across the board, moderate Democrats fared better than their more progressive colleagues.

History was not made in Minneapolis this year. Police reform was on the ballot following the 2020 murder of George Floyd by a white police officer that sparked an international reckoning with racial injustice. Had the measure passed, it would have removed minimum requirements for the size of the Minneapolis Police Department and initiated the transition to eventually replace the police force with a Public Safety Department run by the Minneapolis City Council. While voters may not be ready for such sweeping measures yet, there is hope for police reform – in Austin, Texas, voters overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to expand the police department there.

The Democrats’ narrow congressional majorities could be in grave danger next year. Times may not quite be “good” yet, and they may not be objectively good by this time next year, but the American voters have largely come to accept their new normal. Repbulicans now have confirmation that distance from the former president can be advantageous when it comes to moderate, suburban voters. Democrats should take heed and be very careful to not put all their eggs into the pandemic and “not Trump” baskets.

Nancy Schneider is the Editor of Australian Outlook.

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