An expected result for the Unity government will be survival in its dominated states. Its main rival, National Alliance (Perikatan Nasional; PN), may pick up several rural seats that belonged to the Unity government in the past.

The upcoming state elections, which will likely take place around late-July to mid-August in Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Negeri Sembilan, Penang, and Selangor in Malaysia, will be a crucial test for the Unity government to measure its popularity and solidarity. These elections will also decide the future of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his government.

The most significant concern is the fracture of solidarity among the parties and coalitions inside the Unity government, particularly between the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO). While both parties accept the current marriage of convenience and agree to cooperate despite longstanding ideological differences, grassroots supporters, especially inside the UMNO, are still reluctant to support DAP candidates and accept the status quo. DAP voters and party leaders, mainly from the Chinese and Indian diasporas, are also unhappy with the bipartisan cooperation. Recently, Tony Pua, a senior party leader in the DAP, called the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional (BN) and UMNO “corrupt” . Although the DAP has attempted to distance itself from Pua’s statement, leaders in the UMNO have issued denunciations and protests against the DAP. The ongoing mistrust and infighting between DAP and other parties in the BN, including the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), and the uncertainties surrounding the seat negotiations among the coalitions and parties also raise concerns over the solidarity and stability of the Unity government.

Another critical factor is the popularity of the Unity government in the Malay-dominated electorates. Malays represent the largest portion of voters in today’s Malaysia. In particular, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu are the “Malay heartland,” and the Malay population dominates most electorates. This does not mean the Malay populations in other states, like Selangor and Penang, will be uninfluential. However, the Unity government can count on the Chinese and Indian populations who support the Alliance of Hope (Pakatan Harapan; PH).

The continuing currency devaluation, poor economic performance, and unremarkable achievements in the Unity government’s first hundred days have also put the Unity government at risk. According to a survey conducted by O2 Research, 71 percent of the Malay voters were disappointed with the Unity government. The Unity government has also failed to win the trust in the Malay heartland due to poor performance performed by some ministers, like Rafizi Ramli.

While the Unity government has an advantageous position in Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, and Penang, their popularity among the Malay-dominated electorates is comparatively weak compared with the PN. The PN embraces Islamic conservatism, Malay supremacy, and Islamisation, which successfully attracted votes and endorsement from many Malay constituencies in the last general election.

There are two further obstacles for the Unity government in the Malay electorates: the unpopularity of UMNO and concerns with the DAP among the Malay community. Malays remain suspicious of the Unity government in dealing with religious issues, corruption, economic challenges, and the special rights of the Malay population. They are unhappy with Anwar’s appointment of Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is currently facing corruption charges, as deputy prime minister. They also believe UMNO has departed from fighting for Malay and Islam. Other labels making the rounds, including “Corrupt Party” and “Party devoted to internal cleansing,” have not helped UMNO and BN among the Malay community. Hence, Malays may prefer to vote for the PN or abstain from voting in this election.

DAP participation and influence in the Unity government frustrates many Malays. From their perspective, the DAP threatens the special rights and status of the Malay community, Islam, and the monarchic system in Malaysia by embracing ethnic equality, Chinese chauvinism, Islamophobia, and scepticism toward the royal houses. Although some voters recognise the DAP’s achievements in Penang and feel disappointed with the current PN governance, they tend not to support DAP candidates because of their fears about the DAP and frustration with UMNO-DAP cooperation.

In other words, Malays in the heartland and the rural areas do not trust the DAP and firmly believe the party will continue its “agenda” of marginalising the Malay population. As such, they may not support any candidate from the Unity government in the upcoming election, turning instead to the PN, which shares their DAP scepticism and embraces Malay supremacy, the Malay-Muslim narratives, and Islamism.

A final factor will be how the Unity government will respond to the so-called “Green Wave,” or what Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar, a former member and popular politician in UMNO, described as the “Tsunami of discontent.” In the last general election, many Malay voters supported the PN and its prominent member party, the green-flagged Malaysian Islamic Party (Parti Islam Se-Malaysia; PAS). PAS embraced religious conservatism and the Malay-Muslim narratives, which won many electorates in the north and east. This upcoming election will be more challenging for the Unity government as the green wave is now integrated with the Ketuanan Melayu and broader racial politics, with significant popularity in the Malay community and those six states.

The integrated green wave has also garnered endorsements from prominent political figures in the Malay world. Tun Mahathir Mohamad, the longest-serving prime minister of Malaysia, agreed to cooperate with PN and his former rival, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, another former prime minister and the chairman of the PN. Some former and existing UMNO leaders also joined PAS or declared their allegiance to the PN, aiming to challenge the Unity government and seek revenge on Zahid.

However, Anwar and his Unity government lack a visible strategy to respond to the challenges posed by this green wave. Some suburban electorates in Selangor, Penang, and Negeri Sembilan have already fallen for the PN’s charms, if the results of the last general election are any indication. Nevertheless, the Unity government is hoping voter transferability between the PH and BN voters will enable it pick up more seats and states.

The Unity government will likely survive in its leading states, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, and Selangor. However, it should expect some UMNO supporters to refrain from endorsing the partnership and shift their support to the candidates nominated by the PN. The Unity government can also expect some DAP voters to be absent in this election. The so-called transferability between the PH and BN voters may not work or perform well for the Unity government in the upcoming state elections.

Cheuk Yui (Thomas) Kwong is a research assistant at the Australian Institute of International Affairs. He is pursuing an advanced master’s in Middle East and Central Asian Studies at ANU. His field of interest is diverse but includes Turkish Foreign Policy, Gulf Strategic Environment, Red Sea Geopolitics, Politics in Hong Kong and China, Politics in Malaysia, Chinese History, Energy Security, Political Science, and International Relations in the Middle East. You can find him at https://linktr.ee/k_cyui

This article is published under a Creative Commons Licence and may be republished with attribution.