The Donbass region of eastern Ukraine has been beset by fighting between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian government forces since April 2014. Separatists in the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence in May 2014, establishing the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) respectively. There have been two truces (both signed in Minsk, Belarus) between the rebels and the Ukrainian government, the second one agreed to in February 2015. Following Minsk II, attacks lessened but didn’t cease completely. August, however, has seen a surge in fighting (with both sides blaming each other for the attacks), further endangering the precarious ceasefire. Ukraine, NATO and independent experts say it is clear that Russia is assisting rebels with weapons and soldiers – an accusation Russia denies, claiming that Russians fighting in Ukraine are volunteers.

At the end of July, Ukraine’s highest court approved constitutional changes that would allow limited self-rule in the rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. The changes are part of the Minsk II ceasefire deal. Among other key points, the deal specifies the decentralisation of power in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has expressed support for the changes, but the Ukrainian parliament has yet to approve the decision and many MPs are against it, opposing autonomy for the rebel areas. Russia and the separatists also criticised the proposal, saying the leaders of DPR and LPR weren’t consulted.

While the highest court’s approval is certainly a positive development (of which there have been few since the conflict started), prospects overall for lasting peace in the region are bleak. Although it’s difficult to obtain reliable information about the DPR and LPR, there’s speculation that the Kremlin has lost interest in them and it wants to focus instead on a longer-term effort to weaken Ukraine politically. The self-proclaimed states are highly unstable regions and their leadership is fragmented, with several senior military officers having been killed in rivalries. They are also disorganized: they lack a working government structure and the rebel armies are not well trained or disciplined. The armies (which include mercenaries, Russian ultranationalists, Chechens, Cossacks and criminals) are far from being coherent and united; in fact, many of the high-ranking rebels are opportunists who have their own political or economic agenda that might not always be in line with Russia’s interests. In short, those in power in the rebel areas don’t have the will or the ability to address the needs of the general population.

In light of the above mentioned speculation, will the fighting cease if Russia does end its support for the rebels or instructs them to lay down their arms? Since it doesn’t have full control over rebel forces, it will be difficult for the Kremlin to put an end to the conflict if it decides to do so. Furthermore, many of the militias and criminal groups involved in the conflict have no interest in peace and acting in the interest of the local residents, since the current lawlessness gives them the opportunity to have control over areas where they can engage in drug trafficking, theft, kidnapping and the like. This helps explain why many separatist leaders have tried to undermine the Minsk agreements.

Similarly, the Ukrainian government also doesn’t have full control over armed Ukrainian elements of the conflict. Some groups have been accused by Amnesty International of human rights abuses (just as some Russian-backed rebel groups have been) while others are financed by Ukrainian oligarchs rather than the government. It is therefore no surprise that some of these groups have disagreed with the signing of the Minsk II deal and have been critical of the Ukrainian government’s handling of the conflict.

Further adding to the gloomy prospects of the region are recent Russian and NATO military exercises in the area. Clearly conducted with possible warfare in mind, these exercises heavily contribute to sustaining tensions in Europe and could lead to an escalation of the armed conflict currently restricted to the Donbass.

In summary, the fighting in eastern Ukraine seems bound to continue for the foreseeable future, with no peaceful and lasting resolution in sight and with the possibility of violent conflict spilling over to other regions of Ukraine. Even if Russia decides it wants an end to the conflict (and this doesn’t seem likely), it might well find it has no firm control over the separatists. An even more apocalyptic scenario that can’t be ruled out is an open military conflict between Russia and NATO. Only time will tell if the situation in the Donbass remains bad or goes from bad to worse.

Adam Csenger is currently in the final semester of a postgraduate Master of International Relations at Macquarie University. Previously he completed an undergraduate degree in International Communications (Diplomacy) at the College of International Management and Business in Budapest, Hungary. He’s interested in the Middle East, Africa, the Cold War and world history.