Opening Speech for the 2024 AIIA National Conference

AIIA National Vice President Zara Kimpton OAM FAIIA

11 November 2024

On behalf of the Australian Institute of International Affairs I would like to welcome you all here to this year’s National Conference on the subject of “Facing Fragmentation: Possibilities and partnerships in a fragile world”. I should start by saying that today, the 11th November, is Remembrance Day – which marks the end of one of the most dreadful wars that the world has ever known. War is a terrible thing and where possible all means should be pursued to avoid conflict – bearing in mind that giving in to aggression can sometimes be worse than aggression itself.

The AIIA national conference is now a major highlight of the international relations calendar in this country. We have over 350 registrants across all the events and there are speakers and delegates from over 50 countries. Many of you will also attend our Gala dinner this evening where our keynote speaker will be Federal Treasurer ,Dr Jim Chalmers., as well as our President’s breakfast tomorrow morning which will be addressed by Dr Shashi Tharoor MP, member of India’s Lok Sabha and former UN Under Secretary-General on the topic “Are we again facing a bipolar world”.

Last year marked the 90th anniversary of the AIIA as a national organisation. This year we celebrate the centenary of AIIA NSW which was created as a branch of the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) 1924. This will be followed next year by the 100th anniversary of the creation of the Victorian branch in June 1925. These two branches of Chatham House, together with the one which was then formed in Queensland, joined forces in 1933 to create the Australian Institute of International Affairs. Chatham House itself was founded in London, in the aftermath of the war we are remembering today, as a forum for dialogue rather than war. The AIIA has also continued this tradition ever since its foundation.

We welcome to this opening session 2 keynote speakers: the Hon. Simon Birmingham, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs; and Dr Heather Smith who is the National President of the AIIA. I will introduce them separately later.

We also welcome all those speakers and panellists who will contribute to all the other sessions over the course of the day. And again we are pleased that in our audience there are many diplomatic representatives, including heads of mission, from around the world. Many of our Fellows are also in attendance and I would particularly like to mention our past President John McCarthy, who is a great supporter of this conference. We also have a group of New Colombo Plan Alumni, and members of the AIIA Japan Foundation Indo- Pacific Co-operation Network attending today We are particularly grateful to the Japan Foundation for its ongoing support of this network. We also welcome scholars from the Coral Bell School of the Asia Pacific at the ANU, University of Queensland, Griffith University, University of Canberra and the ANU National Security College. And for the second year we are pleased to see a group of 14 young members from AIIA Victoria as well as three from AIIA South Australia who are attending the conference and associated events as part of their study tours to Canberra.

The AIIA is the only membership based organisation in its field that has branches in all state and territory capitals, and they are all represented here today. Many of you will not know each other but I do encourage you to mix as much as you can. This is an opportunity to create new networks and find new mentors.

Today’s conference follows our series of Masterclasses which took place yesterday at the C oral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at the ANU where about 100 of our younger members from around the

country were privileged to hear and interact with a group of our AIIA Fellows and other collaborators. This was followed by a reception generously hosted by the Dutch Ambassador, Ardi Stoios-Braken.

Now to look at the world in which we live. I think it has come as a great shock to many of us in this country that Donald Trump has again been elected as President of the western world’s leading democracy with his Republican party also controlling both the Senate and the House of Representatives. When he left office in January 2021, just after the appalling events of January 6th, Trump’s approval rating was 34%. As Paul Kelly wrote in The Australian last week: “Donald Trump now has a mandate to re-make America and shock the world”. The editorial in last Friday’s Australian Financial Review stated “Trump’s capricious and self-interested decision making comes with great geopolitical and economic risks. That is underlined by the prospect of Trump cutting a “peace deal” with Russian President Vladimir Putin that sells out and carves up Ukraine. And by the potential for a 60% tariff on all imports from China and a 10% tariff on imports from all other countries including allies such as Australia. That would blow up the world trading system, counterproductively stoke domestic inflation, and severely damage growth and prosperity. Trump also has no plan to rein in the US budget deficit-and-debt spiral that, if unchecked, could jeopardise global financial system stability. America’s global leadership has traditionally rested on the unique qualities of its political system. That system has usually enabled America to recover from setbacks, regenerate its leadership, and project its economic and military power globally. Trump’s second coming represents the greatest challenge to belief in American exceptionalism probably since the Great Depression and at least since the end of the Vietnam war”.

Democracy is alive and well in America but it is now a deeply divided country. We are told that the main reason for the defeat of the Democrats was the economy and that people felt they were better off during Trump’s first term. The strange thing is that the American economy is now preforming well and inflation is now down to 2.44%, after a 20% rise in prices over the past four years. However many of Trump’s supporters are based in the rust belt and rural states where many young people are feeling “left behind” due to their jobs either moving offshore” or being taken by illegal immigrants. They eagerly absorbed Trump’s slogan that he would “Make American Great Again”. The reality may hit home to them and the rest of America that it will be very hard for some of these jobs to come back – and I wonder whether they really want to slave away in factories or do some of the jobs that the migrants have been doing over recent years. Trump’s policies may well be inflationary and will not reduce the national debt. However, young men, including both black and Latino, were also unhappy at some of the DIE and somewhat “woke” policies that the Democrats support.

This conference if of course about a lot more than America and its place in the world. But there is no doubt that the world is looking at greater uncertainty due to Trump’s unpredictability .

Ukraine is about to embark on what will be another harsh winter – with power blackouts which may last up to 16 hours – and will have terrible social consequences, especially for the elderly. Support for Ukraine is also becoming fragmented in the west – particularly amongst far right parties in France and Germany – and now Trump in the US. It was terrible that Putin was able to walk into Crimea in 2014 as his first act of aggression towards Ukraine – and actually get away with it. This will remain a source of unhappiness in Ukraine – but it is looking more and more likely that if the war is to end then there will have to be some sort of compromise by Ukraine and its backers. At this stage Ukraine simply does not have the resources to continue the fight for much longer – unless the west increases its support. Then there is the question of possible NATO membership for Ukraine – which is controversial as it could draw existing members into a war with Russia that they are keen to avoid. The Ukraine war is dividing Europe but if Ukraine is defeated it will be a tragedy for Europe and the world. And speaking of Europe its

largest economy, Germany, is set to contract for a second year in a row with its car exports to China now seriously depleted and within Europe it is now facing strong competition from cheap Chinese electric vehicles. And now its traffic light coalition government has just fallen after Chancellor Scholz sacked his finance minister.

One of the most dangerous new developments has been the development of what is now being described as the “Dark Quad”. Iran is supplying drones and ballistic missiles to Russia and in turn Russia is helping Iran with its nuclear ambitions. Now North Korea is sending troops to Russia to help it fight the war in Ukraine. China is happy to support them all as it helps in its goal of diminishing the existing rules based international order.

Russia wants to develop a new world order. Putin recently hosted the annual BRICS summit in Kazan which was attended by leaders of about 24 countries as well as the UN Secretary General. Many of these countries were from the Global South. Russia and China are both keen to help the Global South pursue its national interests while binding them to their own goals.

At the same time the situation in the middle east is dire with the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon as Israel tries to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah while hoping that the 101 hostages still held in Gaza will be released if they are alive.

In the Indo Pacific the Quad consisting of the US, Japan, Australia and India, continues to be an important part of our strategic planning. Japan now sees Australia as a key partner. Those of you who attended our conference dinner last year will have heard former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso speak about Japan’s willingness to join a possibly renamed JAUKUS. It is also boosting defence ties with South Korea despite the countries’ historical grievances. I am looking forward to learning more about India’s role in the word during this conference as it effectively has its feet in the western driven Quad while maintaining a relationship with Russia which Putin has described as “unique”.

The Taiwan situation is also concerning for many with China increasing its military operations near the island. However there are division in this country about support for Taiwan with former PM Paul Keating saying that “Taiwan people are sitting on Chinese real estate”.

In spite of all the chaos in the world it is also important to note that 2024 was also the year of elections. Almost half the world has voted or will vote in 2024. 64 countries plus the European Union had elections scheduled and Japan even had one that wasn’t scheduled. India also undertook the largest democratic exercise in the world with over 900 million registered voters. Not all the elections that took place around the world could be what we would describe as fair and free. In this context I would like to take this opportunity to pay tribute to the late Colin Chapman who died just a month ago. Those of you read our weekly blog “Australian Outlook” will have read Colin’s monthly columns this year on the elections taking place around the world as well as his columns on the world’s geopolitical challenges. Colin was a former president of AIIA NSW and also an AIIA fellow. He was a former journalist with the Times and the BBC in the UK and several ACP publications in Australia. as well as deputy editor of The Australian newspaper. Colin made an enormous contribution to our analysis of what is both good and bad in the world. He certainly would have had plenty to say about Trump’s re-election. And talking of Australian Outlook I do recommend it to those of you who are not familiar with it. Everyone who has signed up for this conference should automatically receive our weekly emails from now on but if not please register on our website or contact our office. These emails will also alert you to our “Australia in the World” podcast series which was started by Darren Lim in conjunction with our former President the late Allan Gyngell. Darren now hosts the series with invited guests who specialise in whatever international topic is currently important – and there are plenty of those at the moment.

One of the most important elections in our region was the one held in Indonesia earlier this year for its president and every level of government. This time Prabowo Subianto won on the first round and he finally took office just a few weeks ago. Indonesia is now a stable democracy. We have had our differences over the years but we look forward to working co-operatively with Indonesia and its ASEAN neighbours – particularly with a view to maintaining freedom of navigation across our vital trade routes.

There is certainly plenty to talk about today in our panel discussions. Their topics have been carefully chosen to address many of the current issues we face.

As I said last year there are no easy solutions to the challenges the world is facing. It’s important for us to hear all sides of debates. You may not agree with all the points of views expressed but I hope that when the conference concludes you will have a greater understanding of the issues involved so that you can come to our own conclusions.