On 27 August the Australian Institute of International Affairs NSW hosted Ryan Neelam, Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute, who presented the findings of the 2024 Lowy Institute Poll. The poll, now in its 20th edition, is the longest-running and most comprehensive survey tracking Australian public opinion on international issues and attitudes to other countries. It provides a window into how Australians perceive major powers, international challenges, and Australia’s place in the world.

The poll has revealed shifting attitudes towards major powers such as China and the US. Neelam highlighted that Australians continue to view the United States with ambivalence. While the ANZUS alliance is still seen as crucial for national security, a view that has remained steady over the last two decades, there is now a concern that this alliance could entangle Australia in conflicts in Asia and elsewhere not clearly related to Australian interests.

The latest poll shows a slight rise in support for Donald Trump among Australians, despite the country’s historical preference for Democrat candidates. Though this may be attributable to misgivings about former president Biden (the poll was taken before he stepped side), the shift may also reflect a broader uncertainty about the changing domestic landscape in the United States and its implications for global stability.

China, on the other hand, is viewed with increasing wariness by Australians. The poll’s “feeling thermometer”, which ranks countries based on public sentiment, places China at a notably “cool” position. This is a sharp shift from 2016, when China was rated Australia’s “best friend” in the Asia Pacific region. This growing distrust can be attributed to a range of factors, including concerns about Chinese interference in Australian politics, the controversy over 5G technology, suspicion about the origins of COVID-19, human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the erosion of democracy in Hong Kong, and China’s growing presence in the Indo-Pacific. These issues have been heavily debated in Australian media, further souring public opinion towards China.

Conversely, Australians hold a very positive view of Japan, which is now considered Australia’s “best friend” in Asia. Trust in Indonesia and India remains lukewarm: Neelam suggested that opinions on Indonesia might stem from a lack of cultural connection and understanding, with many Australians seemingly unaware that Indonesia is increasingly a democratic nation.

The poll also delved into Australians’ views on the international economy and trade. While there is a general sense of pessimism about the economic outlook, Australians believe that the country has the resilience to weather economic challenges. Support for free trade is higher than ever, indicating a strong belief in the benefits of global economic integration.

The Q&A session following Neelam’s presentation brought up the methodology used in the poll. Neelam explained that the data was gathered through a robust process, with a sample size of 2,000 to 3,000 respondents selected randomly and weighted for demographics such as income, age, and location. The survey was conducted in partnership with the Social Research Centre at ANU, with a confidence margin of 2-3%.

Another question from the audience concerned the apparent contradiction in Australians’ attitudes towards immigration. While many respondents felt that immigration levels were too high, there was also strong support for Australia’s multicultural identity. Neelam noted that this tension likely reflects a deeper debate about how Australian’s view their national identity, but with a broad consensus on maintaining Australia as a successful multicultural society.

The discussion also touched on younger Australians’ growing disenchantment with democracy, with American democracy appearing fragile and polarised. Neelam suggested that this could be driven by a lack of faith in the responsiveness of political institutions and the belief that young peoples’ voices are not being heard.

The event underscored the importance of understanding public opinion in shaping foreign policy. As Neelam emphasised, the Lowy Institute Poll not only provides a snapshot of current attitudes but also offers valuable insights into the underlying trends that will influence Australia’s foreign policy decisions in the years to come. This survey not only informs public debate but also ensures that the voices of ordinary Australians are heard in the often elite-driven realm of foreign policy.

Overall, the 2024 Lowy Institute Poll provides a detailed and nuanced picture of how Australians see the world and their place in it. As global dynamics continue to shift, these insights will be crucial for understanding the direction of public sentiment about Australian foreign policy.

Report by Singithi Herath , AIIA NSW intern

Ryan Neelam (in the middle) with Singithi Herath on the left and AIIA NSW president, Ian Lincoln on the right