On Tuesday 15th October, the Australian Institute of International Affairs NSW welcomed Bruce Wolpe from the United States Studies Centre for an insightful briefing on the upcoming 2024 US elections. Wolpe’s analysis centred on key issues for US voters, the positions of candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, and the equally critical congressional elections that will shape the future of US governance.

Wolpe began by addressing the current national mood in the United States, asking both “what direction is the country going in?” and “where is it headed in the future?” He reflected on the disillusionment many Americans feel with their political process, noting that a growing number believe that their democracy no longer works for them. Wolpe explored the drivers of this sentiment, from economic frustrations to political gridlock at both the national and state levels. According to Wolpe, the US electorate is deeply divided and eager for change, though the form that change should take remains uncertain.

Trump’s candidacy, Wolpe pointed out, is constrained by his historically low favourability ratings. While still commanding support from a loyal base of voters, his overall approval ceiling hovers around 45 per cent. Wolpe attributed this stagnant public approval to ongoing concerns about Trump’s temperament and his fitness for office, which have plagued him since his first term. In contrast, Kamala Harris faces a different challenge—her task is to reignite enthusiasm among voters who have become disillusioned with President Biden’s administration. Wolpe highlighted how Harris’ favourability has fluctuated during her time as Vice President. He drew the audience’s attention to the dramatic upswing in support for Harris that immediately followed her announcing her candidacy for president and drew a contrast with President Biden’s ratings, which have remained subdued since the controversial US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Perhaps most captivating was Wolpe’s analysis of the swing states, particularly Pennsylvania and Georgia. He predicted that victories in those key battleground states could determine the next president. Trump, with his popular positions on the economy and immigration, holds an advantage on the issues, but Wolpe noted that the race remains far from decided. The fragmentation of the electorate has encouraged targeted campaigns, with candidates focusing on specific segments of the population crucial to securing an Electoral College victory.

During the Q&A session, Wolpe addressed several critical questions about the state of democracy in the United States. He pointed out a worrying trend: the curtailment of rights through the repeal of Roe v. Wade, marking a rare reversal in a long-standing trajectory of expanding civil liberties. “We like to believe we’re in an arc of history where we’re progressing toward fundamental rights,” Wolpe remarked, “but now we’re witnessing the rare event of restrictions.” This comment sparked further reflection among the audience on the fragility of democratic norms and freedoms.

When asked about Trump’s influence in the Republican Party, Wolpe discussed the enduring impact of the former president’s rhetoric and strategies. Despite Trump’s polarising personality, Wolpe noted that what truly resonates with his base is not just his personal style but also the values he represents: nationalism, protectionism, isolationism and “America First”.

The audience questioned Wolpe about the potential for increased political violence in the United States in the aftermath of the election. Wolpe acknowledged that the country is deeply divided and has seen significant violence in recent years, from the protests following George Floyd’s death to the storming of the Capitol in January 2021. When asked whether the election outcome could prompt more violence or even a civil war, Wolpe expressed hope that the majority of Americans do not want violence to erupt. He suggested that a decisive victory in the upcoming elections—by either side—could reduce the risk of unrest, as contentious or unclear results tend to fuel greater anger and potentially violent responses.

The event concluded with Wolpe drawing a comparison between the US and Australian democratic systems. He highlighted the resilience of the instruments of Australia’s democracy, pointing to its non-partisan high courts and mandatory voting as key factors in maintaining stability. Australia’s democracy stands in contrast to the volatile and deeply polarised political landscape in the United States, increasingly characterised by rigid factional loyalties at the extreme ends of both parties.

Wolpe’s remarks on Australian democracy resonated with the audience, drawing a round of applause both for his detailed presentation and thoughtful responses to audience questions.

Report by Matt McKelvie, AIIA NSW Intern

Bruce Wolpe (centre), Matt McKelvie (left) and AIIA NSW president Ian Lincoln (right)