Power Shifts in the Indo-Pacific: The 2024 Indian Election
Written by Isabella Grellman
The unprecedented general election in India only months ago saw the dawn of a new era for the nation’s political landscape. At an event last week, the Australian Institute of International Affairs invited Professor of International Relations at Griffith University, Ian Hall, to unpack not only the electoral results, but the broader impacts they will have for the Indo-Pacific region.
Professor Ian Hall (image supplied)
The people of India elected Narendra Modi, leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as their prime minister. Modi, having served as prime minister for the last ten years, secured a third consecutive term in the largest election ever held in India, with an approximate two-thirds turnout of 970 million potential voters. An important trend in the turnout that Professor Hall first identified was the number of voters identifying as women, stating that “women’s participation in Indian elections has risen fairly steadily over the last few years … we are seeing 50/50 in terms of turnout between men and women.”
He also noted that although BJP secured around 36% of the vote, a similar result seen in previous elections following successful campaigns, the Indian National Congress (INC), their main opposition won 99 seats, 47 more than the previous election. Unexpected was the number of seats that the BJP won, dropping from 353 to 293, a whole 107 seats less than projected by the BJP and closely predicted by some of the exit polls. In addition to the loss of seats, the BJP suffered considerable setbacks in major states such as Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. These setbacks came as a surprise to those tracking the election through polling data. As Professor Hall illustrated, the numbers reflected in India’s exit polls are historically unreliable. “We were expecting a big win for Modi and a big win for BJP… (and) we were somewhat misled by the polls,” Professor Hall said and as such, improvements in data collection are necessary to ensure better methodologies and more accurate polls. Not only were the exit polls an unreliable source, but Professor Hall also touched on the media’s hand in predicting the outcome of the election, with some outlets celebrating a BJP and Modi’s victory before the results were announced.
Another conclusion that was made from the outcome of the election is that voting preferences across India remained relatively unchanged. According to Professor Hall, people were voting similarly to previous elections, unpredictably but following readable trends and habits.
They were voting on what we might call substantive issues, economic issues dominated … voters were thinking about the big economic questions.
Not only were economic issues dominating a majority of voters’ minds, but Professor Hall also explained that citizens in rural areas displayed a volatile nature in their voting, shifting between parties frequently.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 2019 Indian Election
A strong anti-incumbent sentiment could also be traced among voters and caste issues were found to be important among constituencies, which proved to be a hindrance for Modi’s campaign. The BJP and Modi wanted to appeal to the Hindu vote as a collective to consolidate the Hindu culture, using anti-Muslim rhetoric to do so. The decision backfired as Professor Hall argued, allowing the opposition instead to campaign on a narrative that “what the BJP wanted to do, (as) part of a broader consolidation project, was remove some of the positive discrimination provisions,” which resulted in lower caste voters feeling uneasy, leading many to move away from the BJP. Anti-Muslim rhetoric is then just another reason voters strayed from the BJP.
For Professor Hall, other reasons can be attributed to a decline in Modi’s popularity and appeal to voters, which has “dimmed” in recent years. Modi, whose personality continues to play a role in his electoral success, has been the dominant political force in India for the last decade. His reliance on this has grown tired and many voters are unconvinced. Professor Hall predicted this could be Modi’s and BJP’s last term “unless (Modi and BJP) can address this drift and unless they can address the economic distress that there is in the country.”
They need to get on top of inflation quickly, they need to create jobs and they need to make growth more equitable.
If the BJP fails to do so, they will likely find themselves in a position in which they do not hold enough power to form government without the support of substantial coalition parties. With the coalition back in the Indian political landscape, Professor Hall also commented on Modi’s inexperience in managing such a coalition. Unlike previous leaders, Modi is yet to engage in an environment where his partners have strong differing opinions and focuses.
In response to the electoral results, Modi reappointed most of the surviving cabinet members. A decision that is likely to project strength and reassure international partners and financial markets, all of which are crucial stakeholders in the general elections. However, Professor Hall commented that this strategy may only work for so long. Due to the economic anxiety felt by voters, the BJP lost out and to gain those voters back, he explained that the BJP needs to bolster social welfare schemes, increase infrastructure spending and reform to land-use and labour laws. In addition, Professor Hall believes that the BJP should focus on producing more efficient forms of farming and agriculture.
Professor Ian Hall (image supplied)
So, what does all this mean for the Indo-Pacific region? “The one thing we can say is that we are going to see more continuity than change,” Professor Hall expressed. He acknowledged that not much has changed within the government, although one matter of much debate concerns the replacement of National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, who may retire relatively soon for personal reasons. Otherwise, Professor Hall explained that there are no real disagreements on foreign policy between the BJP and the INC. On a broader spectrum, he agreed that if the BJP are creating jobs, reducing poverty and getting stronger, it is beneficial for Australia, regardless of relations between the two countries. However, if Modi falls back on right-wing identity politics, which Professor Hall notes he tends to do, it could lead to heightened tensions between Hindu and Sikh communities. Tensions that could have a ripple effect in Australia.
Emerging from a fraught general election, India is at a crossroads. And for Professor Hall, one can only hope that the direction the nation chooses will allow them to forge onwards, stronger.
Edited by Benjamin Colter
Isabella Grellman is an emerging journalist based in Brisbane with a passion for global stories, women’s issues and pop culture. She is a second year university student studying a Bachelor of Communications and Journalism at Griffith University.