A Lehman-style financial crisis in China is probably inevitable within the next two to three years. Yet despite what will be a bumpy transition, the country should then resume respectable — though slower than current — growth.
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China appears to have switched from a foot-dragging strategy to public enthusiasm for a finalised agreement on an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. Such a document may reduce the scope for American involvement, but doesn’t necessarily mean that China desires a wholesale overhaul of the rules-based order.