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Unrequited Love – Scotland and the European Union

Published 22 Sep 2016

What started out as political and economic Armageddon has now drifted into a “phoney war” stage. British Prime Minister Theresa May resolutely insisted no further talks on the United Kingdom’s future in the European Union occur until 2017. Consequently Nicola Sturgeon and her Scottish National Party now face an awkward waiting game. The divergence between the Scottish and English vote in the ‘Brexit referendum’ has been well documented. Despite an obvious political and populist will within Scotland towards independence in order to maintain its position in the EU, very little has been asked about whether the rest of the EU would welcome Scotland with open arms. This break in play will allow Scotland to see how they are truly valued by those they hope to soon call ‘friends.’

Joining the EU as a newly separated nation is an extremely lengthy process. Scotland must first become an independent nation before applying for EU membership and it would necessitate a vote to leave in a second vote on independence. A second failure in such a short period of time would essentially delay any push for independence for at least another generation and severely compromise the long term electoral future of the Scottish National Party. Even if Scotland were to attain independence, it would still take several years before a final vote on the issue by all EU member nations.

In its formal application to join the EU Scotland must brace itself against the effects of internal politics of some member states. As an example, Scottish membership would face robust resistance from a Spanish government extremely concerned about the precedent that its ascent would create for separatist movements in Catalan and Basque Country. A vote to join the EU requires the unanimous support of all member nations. Hence a single ‘NO’ vote would be enough to crush Scotland’s ambition to join the EU.

Then there are questions on economic performance. Without being facetious, what exactly would the EU gain from Scottish membership? Only 15% of its imports flow directly to the EU. Scotland’s share of North Sea Oil tax revenues have slumped as a consequence of a fall in global oil prices, hitting its economy hard. Its net fiscal deficit has increased to £14.8 billion – equivalent to 9.5% of Scotland’s total GDP. Pursuant to its Stability and Growth Pact, the European Union defines an excessive budget deficit as being greater than 3% of GDP. The economic data out of Scotland would not inspire significant enthusiasm within the ranks of the EU. With the rest of the world placing a greater emphasis on renewable energy sources, it would be difficult to find much cause for long-term optimism on this front. And all of this does not even account for the impact of a new currency on Scotland’s economy, be it the Euro or a new Scottish Pound.

If the EU were looking to add members solely on their economic capabilities and potential, it would be hard to see why it would regard Scotland as a valuable new member. Perhaps this may explain why Nicola Sturgeon was so unceremoniously snubbed by EU members recently in Brussels. Scottish ascension would hardly compensate for losing Britain as an EU member. Why would the European Union wish to absorb another country that may very well become yet another net drain than contributor? This is especially pertinent for Brussels as it attempts to grapple with re-emerging economic headaches in Italy and the ongoing troubles in Greece.

For the time being, Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP find themselves in the unenviable position of political “no-man’s land” – completely at odds with those south of its border and seemingly unwanted by the European Union.


Zia Khan is currently in his fourth year of a combined Bachelor of Laws and International Studies, majoring in International Relations at the University of Wollongong. He is also studying Spanish and hopes to study honours in International Studies. On campus he is the Treasurer of the Amnesty International Society and the Secretary of the Diplomacy and Foreign Affairs Society. He has also previously been a mentor with the Australian Indigenous Mentoring Experience (AIME) and has represented UOW at Model UN-style tournaments winning a number of awards. He has spent the last two and a half years assisting solicitors at the Macarthur Legal Centre and has also worked as a Court Assistant Worker at the Campbelltown Children’s Court. His areas of interest primarily include the European Union, US politics and international human rights law.