On Tuesday evening 19 May at Glover Cottages, Editor at Large for the Australian, Paul Kelly, gave his analysis of the current drivers of Australian foreign, trade and security policies. The success of any nation’s foreign policy rested primarily, he asserted, on its economic performance. In the immediate past, Australia had performed brilliantly, but was now in bad shape to handle new uncertainties. Entrenched political dysfunction, economic under-performance and an introspective electorate inhibited timely adjustment. Nor were foreign, defence and security issues Prime Minister Abbott’s strong suit. He had begun his tenure, like Howard, highly opinionated but ignorant. He was now on a steep learning curve. Abbott’s four external themes were relations with Asia, the US alliance, economic diplomacy and national security. Like other prime ministers, Abbott knew he could not succeed if he mishandled relations with China. He had deliberately appointed Andrew Robb as his minister for trade and investment rather than finance. The FTA with China was a big deal, but, Robb had wondered, were Australian entrepreneurs good enough to take maximum advantage of its provisions? Abbott initially opposed Australia joining the Chinese International Investment Bank, but had swung around behind it. He had not appreciated Obama’s (nor foreign minister Bishop’s) efforts to stop Australia joining it. Abbott supported most of Shinzo Abe’s right-wing reforms, including re-interpretation of the Japanese constitution. Abbott’s initiative to consider buying Japanese submarines was astonishing. Japan has never sold major weapons systems abroad. With Indonesia, the special relationship Australia enjoyed with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono had gone and would not return. Nevertheless, Paul hoped Abbott would remain deeply committed to the painful and thankless task of nurturing the relationship in the wake of Chan’s and Sukumaran’s executions.

On a broader canvas, the contest over disputed territories in the northern and western Pacific was fascinating to watch. It would be supremely sensible for Australia to remain detached from the contest, but it was premature to say whether Abbott fully appreciated the situation, or was instead in danger of manoeuvring the country into joining a US-Japan alliance against China. Paul was convinced that the existing order in the Asia-Pacific region must change. The United States was losing its supremacy. But he doubted that Abbott or his government would honestly discuss the associated risks with the Australian electorate any time soon.

Report by Richard Broinowski