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Foreign Policy and Public Opinion: is there a connection and does it matter?

Published 15 Oct 2015
On Tuesday 13 October, Alex Oliver, director of the Polling Program at the Lowy Institute gave her audience at Glover Cottages her perspective on Australian public opinion about how governments handle foreign affairs. Two characteristics were especially clear from poll results. One was that the Australian public are generally more sophisticated and knowledgeable about Australian foreign policy issues and how governments handle them than some professional analysts may think. The other was that politicians ignore polling results on many foreign policy issues at their peril. Notwithstanding this, politicians do continue to ignore public opinion on many issues. Notable cases have been Howard’s 2003 decision to participate in the Iraq invasion, another, the weak responses of a succession of Australian governments to climate change and how to combat it.

The eleven years of the Lowy polling program have revealed some striking results – including on managing the United States alliance, the Australian  economy, handling asylum seekers, and whether axing the carbon tax has been effective in managing climate change. It is clear that Australians have had generally good perceptions on how governments have managed the US alliance, but less favourable views about climate change, economic management or asylum seekers. The way the government has handled terrorism has earned some good marks, as has support for air strikes on ISIS. Public opinion about Indonesia has deteriorated markedly following the execution of Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran. Few Australians saw our aid policy towards Indonesia as appropriate in view of the executions. Nineteen percent of those polled wanted no reduction in bilateral aid but 53 percent did. A substantial group wanted the Australian Ambassador recalled from Jakarta for several months.

Alex Oliver with Richard Broinowski

On China Australians have contradictory feelings. China has variously been seen as our best friend, but also as a threat. The bilateral trade is seen as desirable, but there is ambivalence as to how we should prioritise it with our friendship with the United States. Most Australians polled don’t buy Hugh White’s call for a regional accord between the United States and China, but most, also, don’t want to be put in a position to take sides. Meanwhile, there is widespread ignorance in the community about Chinese politics and the names of Chinese leaders. The same ignorance applies to Japanese leaders, despite former Prime Minister Tony Abbott describing Shinzo Abe as his best friend in Asia.

On the lead-up to the Paris Conference on Climate Change, Lowy shows a majority of Australians polled believe Australians think global warming should be taken a lot more seriously by governments, and that significant reductions in carbon emissions by Australian companies should be undertaken now. As sources of domestic electric power, renewables, especially solar, are regarded with great favour, with coal and nuclear lagging well behind. Rudd’s delaying his carbon reduction scheme in 2011, and then abandoning it, were regarded without enthusiasm by a majority of those polled.

Report by Richard Broinowski