Despite Taiwan’s relatively small population of 23 million compared to its enormous neighbour, the impacts of its elections next year could signal a change in China’s behaviour within the region. The island’s highly anticipated presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for 16 January 2016.

Shifts in Taiwan-China relations are highly probable in the lead up to, and after, Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections next January. The upcoming elections feature Taiwan’s two most prominent political parties: the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DDP), both of whom are represented by female candidates, which is a noteworthy achievement in itself. Whereas the KMT’s defining policy is to further ties with China, the DDP historically favours Taiwan independence and limiting the mainland’s influence to protect the country’s sovereignty and democracy. KMT’s President Ma Ying-jeou has governed Taiwan from 2008, however, he has lost popularity in recent years while the DDP has gained considerable momentum. The tables seem to have turned on the KMT and, factoring in the two parties’ complex historical narrative, next year’s elections will undoubtedly play a significant role in cross-strait relations.

Since the DDP’s emergence in the late 20^th century, tensions have existed between the KMT and DDP. Even though the KMT ruled Taiwan under martial law from 1949 up until the late 1980s, the coalition group, Tangwai Campaign Assistance Corps, protested against them. The protests were successful in leading to a series of reforms. More significantly, in 1986 the Tangwai Campaign Assistance Corps formed into the DDP, despite a ban on opposition parties.

Last year, tensions were evident in China as thousands of protesters filled Hong Kong’s business district in the Umbrella Revolution. Hong Kong’s protesters were unhappy with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s restrictive control in selecting the candidates for their electorate. China’s persistent refusal to grant democratic concessions to the demonstrators alarmed many Taiwanese who are wary of integration with the mainland.

Specifically, some Taiwanese fear that the KMT’s policy towards liberalised trade agreements with the mainland will benefit the business elite and only extend economic dependency on China, undermining Taiwan’s independence and people’s way of life over time. In fact, the 1025 demonstration in 2008 involved an estimated half a million citizens demonstrating against President Ma’s perceived pro-China policies that were allegedly increasing dependency on the mainland. More recently in March 2014, the Sunflower Student Movement was driven by social groups protesting the passing of the KMT’s Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) that demonstrators believed would leave Taiwan’s economy vulnerable to Chinese competition.

As the recent demonstrations show, President Ma has become increasingly unpopular. Along with a toxic milk scandal connected with the Chinese company Sanlu Group in 2008, there was a cooking oil scandal that outraged Taiwan citizens in 2014 – both incidents were negatively associated with Ma and the KMT. In June 2014 to December 2014 alone, polls showed President Ma’s approval rating drop by an alarming 9%.

A member of KMT’s Central Committee, Li-Keng Kuei-fong, was frank in his statement that “this is the worst crisis for the KMT since [the party] fled to Taiwan.” The KMT’s drop in popularity was most evident in its defeat in Taiwan’s 2014 local elections, the party’s largest defeat in recent history. The KMT previously controlled four out of six of Taiwan’s municipalities, but currently controls just one. The party lost Taipei, traditionally a stronghold. With more than 60% of the population of Taiwan governed by mayors who associate with the DDP, anti-mainland sentiments seem to be running high. These statistics point to the DDP as the forerunner in the 2016 elections and show a trailing KMT.

If the DDP’s campaign is successful, how would Taiwan progress? In the lead-up to the elections, the DDP has emphasised a strengthened economy and improved welfare. Speaking in Washington D.C. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, DDP candidate Tsai Ing-wen affirmed that her party is “ready to undertake a new model of economic development… as well as to implement a community-based social safety net to compliment the traditional family-based care systems.” In regards to cross-strait relations with the mainland, Tsai conveyed uncertainty: “while I advocate for constructive exchanges and dialogues with China, I will ensure the process is democratic and transparent, and that the economic benefits are equitably shared.” Tsai made it clear in her speech that her party would maintain the status quo – that is, continue to operate independently from China without further integration but to maintain a positive economic relationship.

In addition to the political situation, the upcoming Taiwan elections capture headlines around the world, as both major political parties are represented by female candidates. This alone signals a significant achievement and a milestone for gender equality, particularly in Northeast Asia where countries like Japan and China lack female representation in politics. A guaranteed female President reflects Taiwan’s well-educated population and the gender quotas implemented in government – a proven method for improving gender equality.

As Taiwan’s elections unfold, it will be worth closely following the developing political atmosphere. A DDP victory would mark a change in cross-strait relations, as China will aim to maintain its influence and to disrupt DDP policies if the DDP advocates independence from the mainland. On the other hand, an unlikely KMT win could instigate protests such as those in Hong Kong last year. Regardless of the outcome of the elections, shifts in cross-strait relations will influence China’s behaviour in the region.

Kevin Kelly is completing a Bachelor of Arts in International Relations and Chinese at Tufts University. This article can be republished with attribution under a Creative Commons Licence.